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Avalanche Forecast

Archived

Jan 16th, 2015–Jan 17th, 2015

Alpine
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.
Alpine
Natural and human triggered avalanches likely.
Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Alpine
Natural and human triggered avalanches likely.
Treeline
Natural and human triggered avalanches likely.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.

Regions

Little Yoho.

A persistent weakness 30 to 60 cm below the surface is a continuing threat to backcountry travelers. The forecast storm on Sunday will likely create a natural avalanche cycle.

Weather Forecast

Significant snowfall up to 30 cm has been forecast for the Yoho region. The snow will be accompanied by strong west winds. Natural avalanches on the dec 18 layer and new storm slab avalanches are expected. Steep lee (east and north) terrain would also be expected to produce significant loose dry avalanches.

Snowpack Summary

The main concern in the snowpack is the Dec 18 surface hoar layer down 40-50 cm. This layer is very prominent and is producing moderate test results. 8cm of new snow today combined with the 20 - 30 expected on Sunday will likely naturally reactivate this layer.

Avalanche Summary

No new avalanches observed or reported in last 48 hours.

Confidence

Timing, track, or intensity of incoming weather system is uncertain

Problems

Persistent Slabs

Persistent Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer of snow (a slab) in the middle to upper snowpack, when the bond to an underlying persistent weak layer breaks. Persistent layers include: surface hoar, depth hoar, near-surface facets, or faceted snow. Persistent weak layers can continue to produce avalanches for days, weeks or even months, making them especially dangerous and tricky. As additional snow and wind events build a thicker slab on top of the persistent weak layer, this avalanche problem may develop into a Deep Persistent Slab.