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Avalanche Forecast

Archived

Dec 14th, 2013–Dec 15th, 2013

Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.
Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.
Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.

Regions

Jasper.

Lee terrain and gully features will have additional slab development over the next few days. Climbers should select their climbs to minimize overhead hazards.

Weather Forecast

A front may bring extreme wind gusts scouring alpine snowpacks on the South and Southwest aspects. Winds may diminish Sunday afternoon with expected light snowfalls through Tuesday.  Colder temperatures are expected later in the week and into the weekend.

Snowpack Summary

Variable wind slab on lee features at treeline and alpine elevations. Alpine regions will be scoured by strong winds in the Icefields. Gusting winds will be moving any available snow that is left. Expect to see additional wind slab development.

Avalanche Summary

Saturday morning's avalanche patrol on Highway 93 did not observe any new avalanches. However a 3rd hand report from climbers on Thursday indicated a size 2 slab release on the middle pitches of polar circus. This slide likely originated from a slab in the gully feature.

Confidence

Intensity of incoming weather systems is uncertain on Sunday

Problems

Wind Slabs

Wind Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer of snow (a slab) formed by the wind. Wind typically transports snow from the upwind sides of terrain features and deposits snow on the downwind side. Wind slabs are often smooth and rounded and sometimes sound hollow, and can range from soft to hard. Wind slabs that form over a persistent weak layer (surface hoar, depth hoar, or near-surface facets) may be termed Persistent Slabs or may develop into Persistent Slabs.

Persistent Slabs

Persistent Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer of snow (a slab) in the middle to upper snowpack, when the bond to an underlying persistent weak layer breaks. Persistent layers include: surface hoar, depth hoar, near-surface facets, or faceted snow. Persistent weak layers can continue to produce avalanches for days, weeks or even months, making them especially dangerous and tricky. As additional snow and wind events build a thicker slab on top of the persistent weak layer, this avalanche problem may develop into a Deep Persistent Slab.