Start your trips early and finish early, run for cover if the sun comes out in the afternoon.
Weather Forecast
Overnight temperatures will have the freezing level close to Treeline. Light precipitation in the form of rain or flurries is forecast on Saturday. Temperatures will be cooler over the weekend with freezing levels on the weekend rising to 2400m. Winds are light westerly. Cooling on Monday eventing may allow a good overnight valley bottom freeze.
Snowpack Summary
Snow conditions are isothermal below 2200m on all but the most northerly facing slopes. South and Westerly facing terrain up to 2,400m has a well developed temperature crust at the surface if freezing occurs. Below 1,700m this curst is present regardless of aspect. The snowpack at all elevations has a weak base and several mid-pack weaknesses
Avalanche Summary
A widespread avalanche cycle took place on Thursday evening with little overnight freezing this will likely occur again this evening. Numerous point releases from the alpine then triggered wet slabs that ran to ground. The largest events were on south and westerly facing and ran to size 2.5. Fewer slides are occurring on northerly terrain.
Confidence
Freezing levels are uncertain on Monday
Problems
Deep Persistent Slabs
Deep Persistent Slab avalanches are the release of a thick cohesive layer of hard snow (a slab), when the bond breaks between the slab and an underlying persistent weak layer deep in the snowpack. The most common persistent weak layers involved in deep, persistent slabs are depth hoar or facets surrounding a deeply buried crust. Deep Persistent Slabs are typically hard to trigger, are very destructive and dangerous due to the large mass of snow involved, and can persist for months once developed. They are often triggered from areas where the snow is shallow and weak, and are particularly difficult to forecast for and manage.
Cornices
Cornice Fall is the release of an overhanging mass of snow that forms as the wind moves snow over a sharp terrain feature, such as a ridge, and deposits snow on the downwind (leeward) side. Cornices range in size from small wind drifts of soft snow to large overhangs of hard snow that are 30 feet (10 meters) or taller. They can break off the terrain suddenly and pull back onto the ridge top and catch people by surprise even on the flat ground above the slope. Even small cornices can have enough mass to be destructive and deadly. Cornice Fall can entrain loose surface snow or trigger slab avalanches.
Loose Wet
Loose Wet avalanches are the release of wet unconsolidated snow or slush. These avalanches typically occur within layers of wet snow near the surface of the snowpack, but they may quickly gouge into lower snowpack layers. Like Loose Dry Avalanches, they start at a point and entrain snow as they move downhill, forming a fan-shaped avalanche. Other names for loose-wet avalanches include point-release avalanches or sluffs. Loose Wet avalanches can trigger slab avalanches that break into deeper snow layers.