Avalanche Forecast

A fresh 3-8" of snow with potentially more at Mt. Baker is forecast Sunday night through Monday morning. Light snow showers are expected for the remainder of Monday. 

The snowpack will begin to refreeze Sunday night and Monday with cooler weather. There is still a low chance for glide avalanches near and below treeline on steep unsupported terrain features that did not release during the recent heavy rains. Much of the below treeline elevation band does not have enough snow cover to support an avalanche hazard. Otherwise shallow isolated pockets of storm or wind slab may exist near and above treeline. The Moderate hazard will be maintained near and above treeline in part due to the lack of direct observations over the last few days. 

Watch for the numerous travel hazards such as open creeks, barely buried rocks and trees, and glide cracks, creating poor and challenging travel conditions, especially below treeline. 

Remember that closed ski areas without avalanche mitigation are equivalent to backcountry terrain!  

New resources within your Avalanche Forecast this season! 

The Mountain Weather tab will take you to the most recently issued Mountain Weather Forecast. The Observations & Weather Data tab will allow an easy view of the various weather station graphs within your zone of interest and provide easy access to the most recent avalanche and snowpack observations. 

The great start to the 2017/18 PNW Winter took a giant step backwards over the last week. During an extended period of warmth and wet weather in the days leading into Thanksgiving, an initial round of wet snow and glide avalanches occurred, especially on steep unsupported slopes and rock faces. Another round of rain Saturday night through mid-day Sunday likely did not cause widespread wet snow avalanches on an already beat up and saturated snowpack. This warm, wet and windy period melted significant snow with total snow depths decreasing by 50% or more from their mid-November peak depths at many NWAC stations. This has allowed much of the previously well snow-covered terrain to open with many creeks and snow bridges re-appearing, especially near and below treeline. 

Rain had changed to snow Sunday afternoon with further cooling and generally light snow accumulations expected overnight.

Observations

No weekend observations due the wet weather, numerous ski area closures and lack of snow in WSDOT avalanche paths. 

Older observations from Friday November 24th in the Mt Baker and Alpental Valley backcountry:

In the Baker region, the key takeaway is just how much the snow cover has diminished with travel becoming significantly more challenging and hazardous due to open creeks and shallow snow. Most of the observed recent wet snow or glide avalanches were estimated to be two or more days old. No direct observations were made above treeline.

In the Alpental Valley, a similar story with evidence of numerous glide avalanche releases from steep unsupported terrain and rock faces. Travel conditions, especially below treeline, are now difficult with numerous early season challenges and hazards having quickly returned.