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Avalanche Forecast

Archived

Mar 9th, 2013–Mar 10th, 2013

Alpine
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.
Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.

Regions

South Coast.

Confidence

Fair - Track of incoming weather is uncertain on Monday

Weather Forecast

Overnight and Sunday: Increased cloud with trace amounts of new snow / Light southwest winds / Freezing level at 1200mMonday: Moderate to locally heavy snowfall in the south of the region / Moderate to strong west winds / Freezing level at 1600mTuesday: Continued snowfall / Moderate southwest winds / Freezing level at 1100m Note: The track of Monday's system is uncertain with some weather models showing the main pulse having the greatest impact south of the border. We should have a better handle on forecast snowfall amounts on Sunday.

Avalanche Summary

Although reports were limited at the time of publishing, warming most likely triggered a round of loose wet avalanche activity on sun-exposed slopes on Saturday.

Snowpack Summary

Dribs and drabs of recent snowfall overlie old wind slabs in exposed areas, and mingle with spotty surface hoar or facets in sheltered locations. A sun crust exists on south facing terrain. Below 1400m in the north and 1700m in the south the light amounts of recent snow overlie a thick rain crust.Between 60-100cm below the surface is a layer of surface hoar which was buried on February 20th. This layer was the culprit in most of the large avalanches that occurred last weekend. Triggering this layer is becoming more difficult, but I would recommend using increased caution on large, unsupported slopes that did not release during the avalanche cycle last weekend. Below this the snowpack is generally well settled and strong.

Problems

Persistent Slabs

Persistent Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer of snow (a slab) in the middle to upper snowpack, when the bond to an underlying persistent weak layer breaks. Persistent layers include: surface hoar, depth hoar, near-surface facets, or faceted snow. Persistent weak layers can continue to produce avalanches for days, weeks or even months, making them especially dangerous and tricky. As additional snow and wind events build a thicker slab on top of the persistent weak layer, this avalanche problem may develop into a Deep Persistent Slab.