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Avalanche Forecast

Archived

Mar 21st, 2013–Mar 22nd, 2013

Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.

Regions

Northwest Coastal.

Avalanche danger may spike on slopes receiving direct sun. Avoid travelling on or underneath sun-baked terrain.

Confidence

Fair - Timing or intensity of solar radiation is uncertain for the entire period

Weather Forecast

Friday: No snow. Light N winds. Alpine temperature near -7.Saturday: No snow. Light winds. Alpine temperature near -6.Sunday: Light snow. Light winds. Alpine temperature near -10.

Avalanche Summary

On Wednesday, a skier-remote cornice failure released a size 2 slab on a NW aspect. A skier-remote size 1.5 slab failed on the March 9th surface hoar layer down around 50 cm. Numerous other skier-remote (from up to 800 m away) avalanches of size 2-2.5 also failed just to the NE of the forecast region, on the same layer. A very large (size 3.5) avalanche was triggered in Cherry Bowl in the Shames backcountry on Sunday. Click here for a full report. These slides illustrate the ongoing potential for surprising, deep and destructive releases.

Snowpack Summary

30-60 cm of recent storm snow rests on a variety of old snow surfaces, including crusts, previous wind slabs and surface hoar. Warmer temperatures and recent strong winds have now set this new snow into a reactive slab, with wind slabs building in exposed areas on a variety of aspects. The surface hoar (buried March 9th) is reported to be well-developed and fairly widespread, mainly at treeline and alpine elevations. Recent snowpack tests have produced sudden failures (pops/drops) with moderate loading force at this interface. Whumfing and remote-triggering of avalanches indicate that this layer remains volatile. A second surface hoar layer, buried on March 18, is also problematic in some areas. The mid snowpack is generally well settled and strong. Cornices are large and untrustworthy, especially when the sun is out.

Problems

Persistent Slabs

Persistent Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer of snow (a slab) in the middle to upper snowpack, when the bond to an underlying persistent weak layer breaks. Persistent layers include: surface hoar, depth hoar, near-surface facets, or faceted snow. Persistent weak layers can continue to produce avalanches for days, weeks or even months, making them especially dangerous and tricky. As additional snow and wind events build a thicker slab on top of the persistent weak layer, this avalanche problem may develop into a Deep Persistent Slab.

Wind Slabs

Wind Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer of snow (a slab) formed by the wind. Wind typically transports snow from the upwind sides of terrain features and deposits snow on the downwind side. Wind slabs are often smooth and rounded and sometimes sound hollow, and can range from soft to hard. Wind slabs that form over a persistent weak layer (surface hoar, depth hoar, or near-surface facets) may be termed Persistent Slabs or may develop into Persistent Slabs.

Cornices

Cornice Fall is the release of an overhanging mass of snow that forms as the wind moves snow over a sharp terrain feature, such as a ridge, and deposits snow on the downwind (leeward) side. Cornices range in size from small wind drifts of soft snow to large overhangs of hard snow that are 30 feet (10 meters) or taller. They can break off the terrain suddenly and pull back onto the ridge top and catch people by surprise even on the flat ground above the slope. Even small cornices can have enough mass to be destructive and deadly. Cornice Fall can entrain loose surface snow or trigger slab avalanches.