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Avalanche Forecast

Archived

Jan 9th, 2016–Jan 10th, 2016

Alpine
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Alpine
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.

Regions

Olympics.

The main problem on Sunday should be loose wet avalanches. It is a bit hard to say how extensive the loose wet avalanches will be so pay close attention to snow conditions if you venture out on Sunday.

Detailed Forecast

Sunny warmer weather should be seen on Sunday. It may be significantly warmer at higher elevations.

The main problem on Sunday should be loose wet avalanches. It is a bit hard to say how extensive the loose wet avalanches will be so pay close attention to snow conditions if you venture out on Sunday. Possible loose wet avalanches should be mainly confined to steep southeast to southwest aspects during the late morning to early afternoon hours. Watch for surface wet snow deeper than a few inches, initial roller balls and initial small natural  or triggered loose wet avalanches.

We have lowered the likelihood of triggering an older wind slab avalanche. But it will still be wise to watch for firmer wind transported snow on specific terrain features. The most likely locations are steep slopes below ridges or cross loaded ribs mainly near or above treeline.

Some powder may still found out there on sheltered north slopes. Surface crusts will also abound to bring added enjoyment to your outing.

Snowpack Discussion

Deep storm snow from late December should be settled and stabilized at Hurricane. About 6 inches of snowfall was seen at Hurricane last week.

NWAC pro-observer Matt Schonwald was at Hurricane on Friday and generally found a right side up stable snowpack. Older wind slab was limited to 15-30 cm pockets near ridges and tests indicated little propagation. New surface hoar was seen primarily on sheltered north to east slopes which will need to be watched in case it is buried by future snowfall.

Problems

Loose Wet

Loose Wet avalanches are the release of wet unconsolidated snow or slush. These avalanches typically occur within layers of wet snow near the surface of the snowpack, but they may quickly gouge into lower snowpack layers. Like Loose Dry Avalanches, they start at a point and entrain snow as they move downhill, forming a fan-shaped avalanche. Other names for loose-wet avalanches include point-release avalanches or sluffs. Loose Wet avalanches can trigger slab avalanches that break into deeper snow layers.

Wind Slabs

Wind Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer of snow (a slab) formed by the wind. Wind typically transports snow from the upwind sides of terrain features and deposits snow on the downwind side. Wind slabs are often smooth and rounded and sometimes sound hollow, and can range from soft to hard. Wind slabs that form over a persistent weak layer (surface hoar, depth hoar, or near-surface facets) may be termed Persistent Slabs or may develop into Persistent Slabs.