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Avalanche Forecast

Archived

Jan 22nd, 2016–Jan 23rd, 2016

Alpine
Natural and human triggered avalanches likely.
Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.

Regions

Glacier.

A warm storm has arrived and the natural avalanche cycle is underway. 

Weather Forecast

The warm and windy storm has arrived,15cm of storm snow overnight with another 20cm possible today.  Freezing levels are expected to rise to 1700m accompanied by moderate to strong SW winds.  By Saturday lowering  freezing levels light flurries and moderate ridge top winds are expected.

Snowpack Summary

A soft slab sits on top of the Jan 4th interface.  The Jan 4th layer consists of surface hoar over facets on northerly aspects and surface hoar over sun crust on steeper S through SW aspects.  It appears to be touchiest where the slab resides over surface hoar/sun crust combo in our area.  Warming temperatures will settle and stiffen the slab.

Avalanche Summary

Avalanche activity increased yesterday afternoon with five avalanches off of Mt MacDonald in the size 2.5 to size 3 range with the size 3 running to the bottom of the runout. 

Confidence

Forecast snowfall amounts are uncertain

Problems

Persistent Slabs

Persistent Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer of snow (a slab) in the middle to upper snowpack, when the bond to an underlying persistent weak layer breaks. Persistent layers include: surface hoar, depth hoar, near-surface facets, or faceted snow. Persistent weak layers can continue to produce avalanches for days, weeks or even months, making them especially dangerous and tricky. As additional snow and wind events build a thicker slab on top of the persistent weak layer, this avalanche problem may develop into a Deep Persistent Slab.