Avalanche forecast

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Northwest Avalanche Center
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Avalanche danger

Tue
Alpine
2 · Moderate
Treeline
2 · Moderate
Below
1 · Low
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Highlights

Steer around steep slopes in wind-affected terrain below ridgelines where you are more likely to trigger an avalanche. South and West aspects might be more problematic, where slabs could fail on a weak layer over a crust.  Small avalanches on weak snow are also possible in wind-sheltered terrain, so heed warnings, like shooting cracks, as a sign to choose lower-angle slopes. 

Avalanche problems

  • Wind Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Possible
    Size
    1–2

    To identify and avoid steep wind-loaded slopes, look for drifts, textured surfaces, and stiffer snow over softer snow. Ridgelines, the base of cliffs, and large open slopes in alpine bowls are likely places to trigger a wind slab. These avalanches may be more sensitive where they formed on weak snow over a sun crust on southern and western aspects. With a layer of weak faceted snow and surface hoar in the snowpack, the potential for an avalanche to break wider and be larger than expected exists. So tread carefully in the mountains and give the snow and wind slabs time to heal before considering stepping out. Shooting cracks, collapsing, and recent avalanches are all signs to choose lower-angle routes. Quick hand pits and test slopes are also a great way to test how the snow reacts before committing to larger, steeper, or more complex terrain. 

    In sheltered areas, a layer of buried surface hoar exists down about 5-6 inches in the snowpack. Currently there isn't much slab structure to the overlaying snow in many areas. Still, as the surface snow begins to consolidate with warmer temperatures over the next couple of days, this layer will be one to watch out for on steep, sheltered slopes at lower elevations. Wind slabs may also have formed over this layer at upper elevations and could be easy to trigger from below. It's a tricky and variable snowpack right now, so approach the mountains with a cautious mindset. 

    (1/3/2025)

    Shooting cracks in wind drifted snow on Delancy Ridge on a southwest aspect at 6600ft.

    Photo: Katie Warren

Avalanche Discussion

There hasn't been significant recent snow, but the wind, sun, and weak layers in the snowpack have quickly transformed our generally safe snowpack into a more complex and problematic one over the last few days. We'll have one more day of relatively cold temperatures on Monday before things really heat up, and we anticipate rapidly deteriorating snow stability. Expect some clearing again on Monday, so sunny slopes could experience another round of warming that induces loose avalanches or creates a more cohesive slab over our various crusts and weak layers. If you feel the snow warm up, get sticky, or begin to rollerball, consider moving to shady or lower-angle terrain. 

On Sunday, observers reported warming and rollerballs on southwest slopes, so expect to find a new surface crust on these slopes on Monday. I spent the last few days in the Washington Pass area. Soft, dry snow was the norm late in the week, with isolated pockets of small wind slabs near ridgelines in an expected pattern. Unexpected was an avalanche on Poster/Pika Peak that stepped down into older, deeper snow layers. While this avalanche occurred in very steep, unsupported terrain and may have been triggered by a cornice fall, it's enough to keep uncertainty about these older layers in our forecast. Friday brought 6-8 inches of snow to the area with moderate winds, and this quickly formed touchy wind slabs along ridgelines that were especially easy to trigger where they formed over weak snow on a sun crust from New Year's. This storm also buried a widespread surface hoar layer throughout the area. Other professional observers and I found this surface-hoar layer reactive in snowpack tests. Test slopes on north and east-facing, steep terrain did not produce any results on this layer. But I suspect this is only due to the lack of slab character of the overlaying snow. As the structure of the snow changes with warm temperatures, it may become a persistent weak layer that we need to tiptoe around for a while. 

Snow totals throughout this past week are between 2-4 feet above 4000ft. Near Washington Pass, a thin crust buried around the Solstice can typically be found about 2 feet below the surface with snowpack depths averaging 5 feet.  In the foothills and eastern portion of the zone, you may find similar amounts of recent snow, but there may be more weak layers than at the Cascade crest.  Snow depths are roughly 2-3 feet. Pay attention to red flag signs of instability, such as whumping collapses, and consider digging down to identify potential weak layers.

You can contribute to the avalanche forecast. Please let us know what you see in the mountains by submitting an observation.

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