Avalanche forecast

Blues

Wallowa Avalanche Center
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Avalanche danger

Alpine
2 · Moderate
Treeline
2 · Moderate
Below
2 · Moderate
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Highlights

Temperatures today will start rising above freezing by the time you read this advisory and are expected to max out in the upper forties (mid fifties for the Blue Mountains) by early afternoon. Expect generally safe avalanche conditions early this morning. By late morning and early afternoon, heightened loose wet avalanche conditions could exist at all aspects and elevations on slopes steeper than 35 degrees, especially if the sun comes out. Get on the snow early today while the snow surface is firm, strong, and stable. By late morning/early afternoon as temperatures rise above freezing and you start to notice the snow surface exhibiting instability, it is strongly suggested that you vacate steep slopes and move to low angle slopes less than 35 degrees in steepness.

Forecast presented by @onxbackcountry. onX Backcountry is a GPS navigation and mapping tool designed with your backcountry objectives in mind, equipped with Avalanche Forecast and Slope Angle layers, Offline Maps and more.

Avalanche problems

  • Loose Wet

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Likely
    Size
    1

    Another warm day today for the mountains of Northeast Oregon, much like yesterday. According to temperature readings throughout the region last night, temperatures got down to freezing at most locations. The Blues stayed above freezing last night with a low of 39 degrees at High Ridge. The overnight freezing temperatures should make for firm and stable snow surfaces this morning above 6000'. However, as temperatures rise above freezing throughout the morning expect the firm surface to quickly start to become soft and potentially unstable by early this afternoon, especially if the sun comes out. Yesterday I observed wet loose avalanche activity on all aspects and elevations I traveled through with the exception of north aspects near and just below ridgelines. The weather today is forecasted to be similar to yesterday's weather and, like yesterday, I expect to see loose wet avalanche activity by early afternoon, especially if the sun comes out like it did yesterday afternoon. Clues, or red flags, like fresh pinwheels and rollerballs on the snow surface are warning signs that the snow is becoming weak and unstable. Another easy to recognize red flag that the snow is becoming unstable is sinking into the snow up to or above your ankles when walking or trying to walk on the snow. When you start noticing these aforementioned red flags or signs of snow surface instability, it is time to make sure you get off of and out from under steep  slopes greater than 35 degrees in steepness. The likelihood of getting buried by a loose wet avalanche is low today, but a loose wet avalanche can still knock an unsuspecting recreationalist off his or her feet and carry that rider into trees, ravines, or over cliff/rock bands.

     

     

     

    (3/25/2022)

    Loose wet avalanche activity on a north facing slope in the Elkhorns. I believe this skier triggered event occurred the 23rd or 24th of March. The photo was taken yesterday (March 25th) morning. At the time of the photo, the snow surface was partially frozen and therefore unreactive to the weight of a skier. During this warm cycle, mornings are the best time to be on the snow if you want to avoid avalanches.

    Photo: TG

  • Cornices

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Possible
    Size
    1

    Use normal caution when traveling ridgelines today. This warm cycle we are in is  causing cornices to thaw and therefore weaken, increasing the likelihood of a cornice to break under the weight of a human. When traveling ridgelines today stay well back from slope edges unless you are certain you are not traveling on corniced terrain. Cornices have a nasty tendency to break further back from the slope edge than you might think.

    (3/17/2022)

    Cornices on east facing terrain at about 8400' .

    Photo: TG

  • Wet Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Possible
    Size
    1–2

    Snowpit data from yesterday's ski tour revealed fair stability but poor snowpack structure in the upper snowpack, which continues to be a common theme throughout our forecast area. A prolonged or robust melt cycle could cause melt water to percolate down to the existing crust layers, causing water to spread out and pool on top of the crust layer. This, in turn, will weaken the bond between the crust layer and the "slab" that resides above. Once that tenuous bond is compromised and ultimately fails, the result is a powerful and dangerous wet slab avalanche. This scenario is unlikely today but possible on solar aspects steeper than 35-40 degrees, especially if the sun comes out. This scenario is more likely to play out in lower elevation areas like the Blues, where temperatures stayed above freezing last night, especially on the steepest slopes if the sun decides to make an appearance today.

    (3/25/2022)

    This is a snow pit I dug yesterday at 7888' on Hofer Butte. About 10" below the snow surface in this photo you can see the first of four prominent crust layers buried in the upper snowpack. Forecasted temperatures for tomorrow (Saturday)are close to 50 degrees. If the sun decides to shine as well, it could be possible for melt water to find its way down onto the uppermost crust. As the melt water hits that crust, the bond between the crust and the snow sitting atop the crust becomes compromised. If the melt process  is prolonged, the bond at the snow/crust interface fails, resulting in a wet slab avalanche on terrain steeper than 35-40 degrees. Another reason to be off steep slopes by early afternoon during warm Spring weather.

    Photo: TG

Avalanche Discussion

Thanks to all who post photos and observations on our website. Getting information from you riders, snowmobilers, snow shoe enthusiasts, and other mountain recreationalists really helps us create the best avalanche advisories possible. Keep the beta coming you all, it is much appreciated !

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