Avalanche forecast

East Slopes Central

Northwest Avalanche Center
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Avalanche danger

Mon
Alpine
2 · Moderate
Treeline
1 · Low
Below
1 · Low
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Highlights

Expect a slightly warmer day than yesterday. Strong sun could create small loose wet avalanches on very steep slopes at upper elevations where more loose and dry snow exists. Shallow wind slabs may be found on the higher peaks of the region.

Avalanche problems

  • Loose Wet

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Possible
    Size
    1–1.5

    On the higher peaks, small loose wet avalanches could run off of very steep slopes facing the sun. Expect the sun to warm previously soft, dry snow on east aspects first, then south, and west. You'll know its time to move away from steep slopes if you observe snow movement rolling off cliffs. Look for signs of recent loose wet slides such as fan shaped avalanches or small rollerballs. Consider whether it might be safer to completely steer around potential runout zones below large features. These slides should be small, but you still don't want to get hit by one. 

    (3/5/2022)

    Small loose wet slides occurred on the 5th off very steep, sunny slopes.

    Photo: Drew Lovell

Avalanche Discussion

Observers at Holden noted a number of small, wet loose avalanches off very steep terrain above 6,500ft or so on Saturday. They also noted some very thin wind slabs above 7,000ft. Some crowns still existed on higher north and east facing slopes. They observed lots of debris from dry and wet avalanches. Most activity appeared to occur during, or shortly after the big storm on the 28th and 1st. They did get some variable test results on weaker snow beneath a thin crust from Valentines Day about 3ft down on a NE aspect at 5,600ft. A widespread avalanche cycle occurred throughout much of the Cascades on the 28th. You'll find evidence of recent large and very large avalanches, often involving wet snow in many areas. The storm dropped copious amount of snow, and the rain line climbed up to around 6,500ft.

For Sunday, expect a solid overnight freeze. This may create challenging travel with breakable crust and icy surfaces at lower elevations. You could find nice spring-like corn riding on southerly aspects at mid and lower elevations if you time it right. There are also plenty of large piles of avalanche debris to navigate. You may find plenty of settling, dry storm snow if you travel to alpines zones at the highest elevations. Some of this could be wind affected, and on sunny slopes it may begin to get heavy.

Be sure to investigate how well the new storm snow is bonded to these underlying surfaces and look for signs of instability. If you see shooting cracks or feel the snowpack collapse under your weight, you should stick to lower angle slopes. You may find layers containing weaker snow that could still produce slab avalanches above the rain line of ~6,500ft. As such, be sure to check for: A layer of facets/surface hoar on shaded aspects or facets over a suncrust from February 26th, and an eroded crust layer from Valentines Day on shaded slopes not too far beneath it. These layers should be between 2-4ft deep in most of the higher terrain (>7,000ft) of the zone near the crest. 

Avalanches are unlikely in areas such as Mission Ridge and Blewett Pass with a very shallow snowpack. Here, it rained to ridgetop, and a cooling trend has since locked things up. For more information on how our current snowpack compares to seasonal averages, check out the monthly Climatological Snow Depth Report. 

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