Avalanche forecast

Moab

Utah Avalanche Center
View on map

Avalanche danger

  • Alpine
  • Treeline
  • Below treeline
Open full map
Out of date — this forecast expired 4 years ago. You’re viewing past conditions, not the current bulletin.

Highlights

Areas of CONSIDERABLE avalanche danger still exist on steep slopes near treeline and above that face NW-N-E. In these areas, thick slabs of wind drifted snow overly a persistent weak layer of loose, sugary facets and human triggered avalanches are likely.

A MODERATE danger exists on most South through West facing slopes near treeline and above, and on northerly aspects below treeline. Human triggered avalanches failing on a buried persistent weak layer are possible in these areas.

Travel tip: Stick to low angle sheltered terrain for the BEST and SAFEST riding today.

Avalanche problems

  • Persistent Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Likely
    Size
    3

    The widespread persistent weak layer (PWL) that formed in November is showing signs of strengthening and stability tests continue to be less reactive. This means avalanches are becoming harder to trigger but the consequences remain the same. Any avalanche triggered on this deeply buried PWL would be large and unsurvivable. The greatest risk exists on steep, wind drifted slopes with a northerly aspect, but a relatively poor snowpack structure remains on all aspects. Carefull slope assesment and stability analysis is required before venturing into steep terrain. As we start to think about easing into larger terrain, areas to avoid include slopes with steep convexities or blind break-overs; thin snowpack areas along slope margins or near shallowly buried rock outcrops; and areas of steep, rocky, more radical terrain.

  • Wind Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Possible
    Size
    2

    Southerly winds continue to blow and drift snow on to leeward slopes. Creating problems in and of themselves, fresh drifts also continue to add stress to the buried PWL and a triggered wind slab could step down causing a deeper and more dangerous avalanche. Wind drifted snow is stiffer and more cohesive than non drifted snow. Hard drifts often sound hollow and drum like. Freshly formed wind drifts are quite sensitive and easily triggered. Old, hard wind slabs can be stubborn and allow you to get far out on to them before they fail. Shooting cracks in the snow are a good indicator that you have stepped onto a wind drift.

    Recent slabs of wind drifted snow will be most pronounced on slopes facing the north half of the compass. These slopes are loaded well below ridge lines, further down than you might expect. Strong winds have the ability to load any aspect, because terrain features can cause winds to shift and change direction. Look for recent drifts on all aspects above treeline.

Special Announcement

Improve your avalanche awareness and rescue skills and sign up for our Backcountry 101 Class on January 20, 21.

Road Conditions: The road is plowed but areas of soft snow exist near the top. 4x4 recommended.

Grooming: We've got some new grooming equipment in town! Give a huge shout out to locals Gavin and Crystal Harrison who have graciously offered up their services to the LUNA program! They've also been busy cleaning up the soft snow on the upper end of the road.

Recent Activity

Travis Nauman sent in this report of an avalanche that ran in the Corkscrew Glades during last week's cycle. This is a great reminder that this steep, wooded area in the near treeline zone should not be considered safe terrain.

Snow and Weather

24 Hour Snow 0" 72 Hour Snow 0" Season Total Snow 130" Base Depth at Gold Basin 60"

Winds on Pre Laurel Peak S 20-25 G33 Temp 20F

Weather

Southerly winds have been on the increase overnight and high clouds are streaming into the region ahead of a weak, shortwave trough that will track across the northern Rockies. Today look for partly sunny skies, breezy SW winds, and high temps in the mid 20's. The Pacific trough train continues through the week keeping us under a generally unstable pattern with a smallish storm looking to affect our area directly Tuesday night into Wednesday.

General Conditions

The mountains are pasted with snow and coverage is excellent. Good, settled powder conditions are still widely available on shady aspects and in wind sheltered terrain. The sun was fairly strong yesterday and some south facing slopes will be lightly crusted this morning. A poor snow pack structure can still be observed with the November persistent weak layer present on all aspects. It is becoming far less reactive however, showing both signs of strengthening, as well as adjusting to last week's load. Areas of greatest concern continue to be on steep, wind loaded, northerly aspects.

As we trend towards Moderate danger, consider this: most avalanche fatalities occur when the danger is moving up from Moderate to Considerable, or back down from Considerable to Moderate. As we start to think about easing into larger terrain, areas to avoid include slopes with steep convexities or blind break-overs; thin snowpack areas along slope margins or near shallowly buried rock outcrops; and areas of steep, rocky, more radical terrain.

Lots of folks have been getting up and enjoying all the great snow, you can read all La Sal observations here.

Snowpack and Weather Data

Gold Basin Storm Stake (10,000')

Gold Basin SNOTEL site (10,000')

SNOTEL site near Geyser Pass Winter Trailhead (9600')

Wind Station on Pre-Laurel Peak (11,400')

NWS forecast for the La Sal Mountains.

Additional Info

The Avalanche Beacon Training Park is up and running just above the Geyser Pass Traihead. It's right there and easy to use, so get some practice as you head up for your next tour.

General Announcements

This forecast is from the U.S.D.A. Forest Service, which is solely responsible for its content. This forecast describes general avalanche conditions and local variations always occur. This forecast will be updated by 7:30 tomorrow morning.

Regions covered