Avalanche forecast

Summit Lake

Chugach National Forest Avalanche Center
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Avalanche danger

Thu
Alpine
2 · Moderate
Treeline
2 · Moderate
Below
1 · Low
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Out of date — this forecast expired 6 months ago. You’re viewing past conditions, not the current bulletin.

Highlights

Strong northwesterly winds will blow whatever soft snow is left into a fresh round of reactive wind slabs, likely 6 to 12" deep. These will be most likely at and above treeline, near ridgelines, convex rolls, and in steep gullies. A stubborn deeper weak layer, buried 2 to 4' deep on average, remains a concern in all terrain above 2500'. Although the chances of triggering an avalanche on that weak layer are small, the potential size of those avalanches is enough reason to consider avoiding consequential terrain.

Avalanche problems

  • Persistent Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Possible
    Size
    2–3

    Recent Avalanches: There were several natural wind slab avalanches that occurred during last week's wind storm. There have not been any avalanches reported since the weekend.

    Not much has changed with the deep, stubborn layer of faceted snow that is buried 2 to 4' deep on average in Summit Lake. It has been several weeks since we last saw an avalanche on this layer, but we are still finding a poor structure when we're digging down to look at it, and Daniel's group experienced multiple collapses on this layer just yesterday on Colorado (details here). This is bull's-eye data indicating the layer is still reactive on some slopes. It is most concerning above 2500', and can be challenging to assess. Although it has become stubborn, it is still something that is keeping us out of consequential terrain for now.

  • Wind Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Possible
    Size
    1–2

    Strong northerly winds have been at work trying to find snow to move around since late yesterday afternoon. Although last week's winds have already stripped most of the soft snow from the surface, this round will likely still be able to blow some snow into small but reactive wind slabs, up to 6 to 12" deep. Some weather models are actually showing the highest winds in the middle elevation bands, which means this is something to pay attention to even before you get up into the alpine.

    The most likely place to find this problem will be in steep terrain near ridgelines, convex rolls, and in steep gullies. After a week of windy conditions, it will be hard to recognize which slopes have been freshly loaded. Any warning signs like shooting cracks or collapsing are clear indicators of unstable snow, but these will not always show up before triggering an avalanche. Look for better surface conditions and a more stable snowpack in terrain with soft snow on the surface that has somehow dodged the wind over the past week.

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