Avalanche forecast

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Sawtooth Avalanche Center
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Avalanche danger

Thu
Alpine
2 · Moderate
Treeline
2 · Moderate
Below
1 · Low
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Highlights

Triggering large avalanches is possible, especially on steep slopes where wind has stiffened the snow surface into a slab. The size and chance of triggering an avalanche generally increase as you move up in elevation and around to north-facing aspects. Sticking to wind-sheltered slopes is a great way to reduce your odds of triggering a large avalanche today.

Avalanche problems

  • Persistent Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Possible
    Size
    1–2

    Sunday’s storm snow fell on various weak surfaces developed during a month-long drought. Triggering a large persistent slab avalanche is possible, as evidenced by recent observations of natural and human-triggered slab avalanches. You're most likely to find trouble in recently wind-drifted terrain. Assume that weak faceted layers exist beneath the storm snow on NW-N-NE-E aspects at middle and upper elevations, increasing the chances of triggering a slide.

    Snowpack cracking and collapsing or whumpfing are clear signs of unstable conditions. However, a lack of these obvious warning signs doesn't mean you're in the clear. Persistent Slabs can release in surprising ways, break wider than expected, and  be remotely triggered by releasing above, from the side, or from flat terrain near steep slopes. Your best way to play it safe today is by avoiding steep slopes facing the shady side of the compass where you suspect or feel a slab has formed.

    (2/10/2026)

    Slab avalanches near Elizabeth Lake in the Northern Sawtooths. NE @ 8,800'.

    Photo: Sawtooth Avalanche Center

  • Wind Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Possible
    Size
    1–2

    Sunday night's storm came in with moderate to strong winds and formed 1-3 foot thick slabs and drifts in upper elevation locations. Slabs are larger, stiffer, and most widespread in alpine and exposed upper elevation terrain. The slabs could rest above weak crust and facet combinations on southerly aspects or small sugary facets on more north-facing slopes - this could make avalanches easier to trigger and wider than you might expect. You can dramatically decrease the chances of finding trouble by avoiding steep, wind-loaded slopes.

    Pay attention to the snow you are traveling through; if it is becoming denser or deeper, you are probably moving through a wind slab. They can feel hollow or drum-like, which indicates that they are sitting atop weaker snow and should be avoided when on a steep slope. To spot the fresh slabs, watch for smooth pillows, dunes, and large wind features below ridgelines, rollovers, and cornices as well as on the sides of cross-loaded gullies and couloirs. Cracks shooting out from your skis or sled are clear indicators you've found unstable conditions and should move to terrain with softer snow.

    (2/10/2026)

    Slab avalanches on Goat Pk in the Boulder Mountains. SE @ 10,000'.

    Photo: Sawtooth Avalanche Center

Avalanche Discussion

Over the past couple of days, we've observed and received reports of multiple natural, wildlife, and human-triggered large slab avalanches (thank you obsevers!). This bullseye data points to the most dangerous avalanche conditions where the two problems described above overlap: wind-stiffened slabs resting on top of weak, sugary, faceted snow. This overlap is most pronounced around the middle/upper elevation transition on NW-N-NE-E slopes. These are the locations that harbored the best lingering snow before the storm and are the places to be the most heads-up now. The challenge of navigating whether a slope is sketchy or safe lies in the fact that the character of the snow below the fresh slabs can change dramatically as you move a little bit up or down in elevation and to slightly sunnier or shadier aspects. The new snow falling today will do little to change the danger, but will make identifying slabs from Sunday's storm harder to visually spot.

Here are some overarching ideas to keep in mind if you head into the hills today:

  • Slopes remain highly suspect where the recent snow fell on widespread, pronounced weak layers (facets, crust + facet combos, and isolated surface hoar) on NW-N-NE-E aspects. Although most dangerous with an obvious overlying wind slab—don't let your guard down if you're skiing and riding on slopes just below the obvious "wind zone."
  • Recent snow that fell on stout crusts and wind-hardened surfaces should be healing and appears to be bonding well to the previous surface.
  • Triggering large avalanches is unlikely in wind-protected terrain, where the new snow hasn't formed a significant slab.

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