Avalanche forecast

Northwest Mountains

Crested Butte Avalanche Center
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Avalanche danger

Fri
Alpine
3 · Considerable
Treeline
3 · Considerable
Below
3 · Considerable
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Out of date — this forecast expired 6 months ago. You’re viewing past conditions, not the current bulletin.

Highlights

Our puny snowpack is in distress with over a foot of new snow and wind loading.  It will be easy to trigger avalanches on leeward and northerly facing slopes.  On the north half of the compass, avalanches in the new snow can grow larger than expected by propagating wider, entraining old snow, or stepping down to older slabs.  

Avalanche problems

  • Storm Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Likely
    Size
    1–2

    A foot of new snow and moderate southwest winds have formed sensitive instabilities in the storm snow.  Slabs are expected to be most sensitive on leeward slopes at higher elevations (where slabs are thicker and more cohesive) and on northerly aspects (where the storm interface is weakest).  Shooting cracks are clear warning signs of unstable snow.  Watch for soft slabs to entrain old, weak snow and grow larger in sheltered terrain.  Carefully monitor new snow amounts and entrainment potential, how well it is bonding near the storm interface, and terrain consequences before traveling in avalanche terrain.  Manage the problem with lower slope angles or smaller, inconsequential terrain features.   

    A thin storm slab triggered yesterday afternoon. Slabs in the new snow will be thicker today.  (2/11/2026) Photo: Crested Butte Avalanche Center

  • Persistent Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Possible
    Size
    1.5–2.5

    Our current loading event could reactivate weak layers buried deeper in the snowpack beneath older, harder slabs.  The most likely scenario is a shallow storm slab gaining enough mass to trigger a step-down avalanche on a north or east aspect at higher elevations.   This is a lower likelihood but more difficult problem to assess.  You can reliably avoid the problem on slope angles less than 30 degrees.  Southerly aspects have a more reliable, springlike snowpack structure, and the old snowpack at lower elevations is often fully faceted lacking old, cohesive slabs.   

    An example of a step-down avalanche from our last storm cycle.  A shallow storm slab from high on the slope caused a deeper, harder slab to release below the cliff band.  (1/27/2026) Photo: Crested Butte Avalanche Center

Avalanche Discussion

Unless you've been hibernating in a cave the past 3 months, you're well aware that our snowpack is historically shallow.  If you just woke up during fake spring last week: hi there, winter is back and avalanche season has returned...crawl back into your cave.  Except where it was flooded by meltwater during last week's warmup, a shallow snowpack is a weak snowpack.  Like all of the relatively modest loading events this year, this one should produce a decent amount of natural activity, particularly in the favored Northwest Mountains, where storm slabs are generally larger and more widespread.  Storm totals early this morning range from 13" (1.1" SWE) at Schofield Pass to around half that near and east of CBMR.  Our pow cam shows 9" on Mt. Emmons, so terrain straddling the boundary of our two zones will be a hybrid of the two forecasts today.  

If you're just getting caught up on conditions, click through our media gallery captions below for a brief tour of the snow surfaces and structures that are now getting buried by our current storm system.  Northerly aspects have the weakest snowpack and will be most problematic under the new load.  Not only will new slabs be most sensitive there, but they can also grow larger than expected from entrainment of old sugary snow or by prying out old slabs.  The thin, collapsible crusts on E to NE and W to NW aspects will be something to keep an eye on as well, with potential for trickier feedback or wider propagation.    Southerly aspects transitioned to a more spring-like snowpack structure during last week's warmup and are expected to be the most well-behaved this week.  You'll still want to monitor and manage for storm instabilities above the crusty storm interface, which may have a thin layer of facets above it at some higher elevation terrain.  

Regions covered