Avalanche forecast

San Francisco Peaks / Kachina Peaks Wilderness

Kachina Peaks Avalanche Center
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Avalanche danger

Sun
Alpine
2 · Moderate
Treeline
2 · Moderate
Below
2 · Moderate
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Out of date — this forecast expired 6 months ago. You’re viewing past conditions, not the current bulletin.

Highlights

Warm temperatures overnight persisted.  Wet loose avalanches are possible today, especially in the afternoon on solar aspects or at mid- to lower-elevation areas. Watch for signs of instability, including recent avalanches, collapsing, rollerballs, and deep wet snow. 

Avalanche problems

  • Loose Wet

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Possible
    Size
    1–2

    Temperatures over the last few days have been well above normal.  Last night temperatures dipped to freezing (32°F) at Inner Basin SNOTEL site. Yesterday's high was 52°F at 2 pm. All other weather stations (at Arizona Snowbowl) remained above freezing and have been that way since earlier in the week. Convection cooling by the wind has been refreezing the surface of the snow each night. This is not the same as a proper refreeze for the snowpack. The more days that the snowpack remains unfrozen at night, the more likely wet avalanches become. 

    Small wet loose avalanches may be possible, especially in the mid-afternoon as melting conditions reach their peak.  These wet loose avalanches happen on the surface of the snow and usually start as point releases that then entrain more snow as they descend the slope.  Today's possible wet loose slides will be small but could still knock a skier or rider off their feet.  Be careful when traveling on soft and slushy snow on steep slopes above terrain features, such as cliffs and rocks, as these features could complicate a fall. 

  • Persistent Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Unlikely
    Size
    1.5–2.5

    Multiple weak layers in the snowpack are present in specific terrain on northerly aspects of the forecast zone.   The chance of triggering this type of avalanche is small, due to its more localized distribution and sensitivity, but these weak layers are buried deeper in the snowpack and avalanches of this type could easily be large enough to bury a skier or rider.  This is a classic low probability but high consequences scenario.

    The layer of greatest concern is from the January 9th storm.  This snow quickly developed into diurnal recrystallization (recycled powder) facets.  It has been buried by the most recent storm cycle, and in specific locations is distributed widely enough that, if loaded or triggered, could result in a large avalanche.  

Avalanche Discussion

Last night, the low at the Inner Basin SNOTEL site (9720') was 32°F, and all other weather stations remain above freezing. These continued warm temperatures are melting out areas quickly. Travel to and from the Inner Basin is becoming increasingly challenging. 

It's best to dust off your spring travel advice and start early! Bring ski crampons and be off the snow before it turns into deep, wet snow (over boot top). 

In a short timeframe, we’ve transitioned from winter storm conditions to late spring, and it's not even March yet. Conditions vary considerably across the forecast area right now, increasing uncertainty. It’s best to factor that into your tour plans by creating options and building in wide safety margins.

There are reports of good soft skiing above treeline. These reports with any information are helpful to us. Please submit them here. 

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