Avalanche forecast

East Slopes South

Northwest Avalanche Center
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Avalanche danger

Tue
Alpine
2 · Moderate
Treeline
2 · Moderate
Below
1 · Low
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Highlights

Continued warm temperatures with the possibility of afternoon sunshine will sustain the chance of triggering wet avalanches. Avalanches will likely be on slopes in direct sun and very steep rocky terrain. If you find wet, heavy snow, it may be time to move to lower angle or shadier terrain.

Avalanche problems

  • Loose Wet

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Possible
    Size
    1–1.5

    Temperatures will be slightly cooler on Sunday, and there is a potential for cloudy skies in the morning and partial clearing in the afternoon. Wet loose avalanche hazard will depend on how the weather plays out tomorrow. Expect a balancing act between the potential for strong ridgeline winds and clouds keeping the surfaces cool and sunshine and warm air softening and melting snow surfaces. Many southern aspects at low elevations have melted back significantly, and an inversion may trap cool air in low-lying valleys, limiting the potential for avalanches. Very strong winds have redistributed the old storm snow into stiffer wind-packed surfaces. These stiffer surfaces may take more time to soften and develop wet loose avalanche conditions. Track the snow surface as you travel, and if you see pinwheels or rollerballs and the snow feels wet and heavy, it might be a good time to head toward lower angle or shadier slopes. Be cautious of traveling above rocks, cliffs, creeks, or other obstacles that can increase the consequences of getting caught.

    (1/25/2022)

    Wet loose avalanches in steep terrain may be possible with sun and warming temperatures on Sunday. 

    Photo: Katie Warren

Avalanche Discussion

Very warm temperatures were true to the forecast on Saturday, with many weather stations recording temperatures in the mid to high 40's. While the low-lying valleys were cooler, it wasn't by much, and temperatures in the mid to high 30's were common. While ambient temperatures will likely not cool much overnight, clear skies may help to refreeze wet snow surfaces.Uncertainty and variable conditions are the themes in the East South zone. From Jan 30- Feb 2, storms deposited 8-12 inches of snow over various surfaces. Strong ridgeline winds have redistributed much of that new snow into dense slabs, scoured west aspects, and created stiff wind-board surfaces. Eastern portions of the zone received minimal new snow, and thick icy crusts exist on the surface, maintaining challenging travel conditions. Expect elevated hazard in areas closer to the crest that received more snow. If you are getting out to enjoy the sunshine, approach terrain with an assessment mindset, investigate snowpack interfaces, look for signs of instability such as shooting cracks or collapsing, and pay close attention to surfaces warming in the sun. 

There was a significant loss in overall snow height in January, and many ridgelines, southern aspects, and low elevation slopes melted out to bare ground. Several creeks reopened during the warm weather, and many snow bridges fractured or collapsed. Shallowly buried obstacles are additional hazards to deal with hidden beneath the new snow. 

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