Avalanche forecast

San Francisco Peaks / Kachina Peaks Wilderness

Kachina Peaks Avalanche Center
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Avalanche danger

Tue
Alpine
2 · Moderate
Treeline
1 · Low
Below
1 · Low
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Out of date — this forecast expired 3 years ago. You’re viewing past conditions, not the current bulletin.

Highlights

Human triggered avalanches are possible above treeline on steep slopes on all aspects.  Watch for cracking and collapsing, as these are obvious signs of avalanche hazard.  Obstacles buried just below the surface and areas of exposed terrain remain a danger on skiable and rideable slopes and on approach and egress.

Avalanche problems

  • Persistent Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Possible
    Size
    1–2

    Faceted snow at the bottom of the snowpack remains the primary hazard on slopes of nearly all elevations and aspects.  This is a challenging problem to negotiate as it presents a low probability but high consequence scenario.  The exception is mid and low-elevation south-facing slopes, where snow coverage is minimal and solar radiation has reduced the early season snowpack.  Steeper slopes at high elevations present the most significant probability of being triggered.  Skiers and riders entering the backcountry should understand this hard-to-predict risk.   Retreat from cracking slopes, especially those with terrain traps below traverses.  High temperatures today could be softening upper level crusts and mid-snowpack slabs making the deep faceted snow more reactive.

Avalanche Discussion

Conditions are currently variable across the peaks. and rapidly changing.  Thin coverage remains a primary hazard and backcountry travelers should ski cautiously and expect challenging approaches and exits.  Due to the wide variety of conditions, be sure to assess terrain carefully, as conditions could change rapidly depending on aspect and time of day.

On Thursday, the Peaks received 2-7 inches of fresh snow.  The upper surface of this new snow is forming melt-freeze crusts on south facing slopes, and many other aspects have developed either wind or thermal crusts, caused by temperatures just at the melting point.  On most aspects and elevations, a layer of facets and/or near surface facets is present just below the new snow.  Thus far, a variety of tests shows that this layer lacks the continuity to create a large avalanche of D2 or greater in size, but on some isolated terrain, it could release more widely.  Smaller avalanches are possible on this layer. The generally east faces of Agassiz and Humphreys show snow depths varying from scoured and nearly impassable ridgelines of 0-30 cm to wind-filled gullies of 60-110 cm to catchment zones holding as much as 110-200 cm.  Extended column tests in Big Bowl, Snow Slide, and North Core have propagated on weak layers found both near the top and bottom of the snowpack.  Overall structure remains poor; strength is moderate to high and propagation propensity varies between low and moderate.

Wind slab could still be found in isolated terrain features.  Most of these slabs are very firm and unreactive, but some minor amounts of snow transportation overnight and today could result in more active wind deposited slabs.  Any wind slab avalanches will be small but could carry a skier or rider over steep terrain.  Avoid these areas, especially if cracking or shearing is observed.

Warming temperatures from the past two days may have weakened the snowpack.  Today's high temperatures will continue this trend.  This may soften upper layer crusts and the denser slab resting above basal facets, making this bottom weak layer more sensitive to triggering.  Be mindful of timing and avoid steep slopes that have received significant warming.  Small wet loose avalanches and roller balls are signs that things are really warming up. 

Thus far, no avalanches have been observed or reported this season.  This could change if the snowpack is loaded by a large storm.   Egress and regress remain challenging, but in some places, they are achievable without significant hazards.  The typical array of obstacles: boulders, rocks, stumps, and logs, are the primary hazard for those looking to earn some backcountry turns.  Be prepared to walk over some wind-affected terrain. and negotiate continued early season conditions.

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