Avalanche forecast

Maritime

Valdez Avalanche Center
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Avalanche danger

Alpine
2 · Moderate
Treeline
2 · Moderate
Below
No rating
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Out of date — this forecast expired 8 months ago. You’re viewing past conditions, not the current bulletin.

Highlights

The avalanche hazard is Moderate today.  It remains possible for a person to trigger a wind slab avalanche 1-2 feet in depth in specific terrain, which includes cross-loaded gullies.  Watch for signs of instability, such as shooting cracks or collapsing that would indicate unstable snow.  Natural avalanches are unlikely.

There is no hazard rating for the Maritime zone due to a lack of snow

Public avalanche forecasts are issued Wednesday-Sunday at 8 am.

Avalanche problems

  • Persistent Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Possible
    Size
    1–2

    A wind slab avalanche problem formed on 12/30-31 and has been our main stability concern throughout the week.  Wind slabs are generally a short lived avalanche problem (~48 hours) unless they overlie faceted (weak) snow.  Observations from 1/2 showed wind slabs to be increasing in hardness, but remaining reactive where they overlie the 12/1 rain crust below 3000'.  For backround , the 12/1 rain crust has shielded the snowpack from being completely blown away by strong wind were it exists.  Cold temperatures have enhanced faceting on the underside of the layer as well causing a decrease in the strength of the crust.  

    Long shooting cracks, significant collapses, and most notably a remote trigger of a wind lip 800 feet away were all observed yesterday (see observation here).  These signs of instability show that not only a weak layer exists, but also how reactive it can be even under the minimal load of the most recent wind slab.  

    The message for today is that old wind slabs are locking up, but can fail where they overlie continuous sections of the 12/1 rain crust.  This crust has been broken up in the most wind exposed areas like Thompson Pass and will be spotty in distribution.  Areas more protected from the wind will have the crust more widespread below 3000 feet.  Keep in mind that the 3000' elevation limit can vary by as much as 500' from place to place.

    Anticipate where wind slabs would have formed and watch for signs of instability in those areas.  Avoiding cross-loaded terrain is recommended, as these will be the most likely areas to find wind slabs that remain reactive. 

     

    (12/26/2025)

    Underside of 12/1 rain crust

    Photo: Gareth Brown

Avalanche Discussion

Avalanche activity in the last 72 hours:  None

Forecast Discussion:  

We are in the final days of what has been a brutal pattern of below-average temperatures, wind and very little new snow.  The result of this weather has left us with a variety of wind damged surfaces as well as large areas stripped to the ground.  In addition to wind damaged snow, significant faceting has also occurred.  The degree of faceting and structure of the snowpack is variable depending on elevation.

Our current primary concern is thin wind slabs that sit on top of the 12/1 rain crust that exists below 3000'.  The majority of terrain is stripped of new snow and this weak layer (12/1 crust) is at the surface and poses no danger.  Only specific terrain such as cross-loaded gullies and lee slopes are areas where the weak layer has been buried and is a concern.  We have been anticipating this rain crust to be an issue once we begin to receive meaningful snowfall, but seeing it immediately become reactive with minimal load is notable.  This weak layer is going to be loaded by new snow next week which will move the distribution of reactive slopes from specific to widespread below 3000'. 

There are facets above 3000' as well, but in contrast to the 12/1 rain crust where they are only capped by a weak crust, the facets above 3000' are topped with thick wind slabs that are very strong.  These wind slabs will require a much larger load before we see the facets below them react.  

Additional Details:  There is no field data from the Maritime zone due to low snow coverage and thick brush restricting access.  Numerous Glide avalanches have released in the Maritime zone in the mid elevation band.  Some of these may have failed without previous visible glide cracks.  Avoid travel below glide cracks as they can fail at any time.  Their likelihood of failure is independent of the snowpack stability.  Check out the season summary tab for more information on the development of the snowpack.

 

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