Avalanche forecast

Selkirk Mountains

Idaho Panhandle Avalanche Center
View on map

Avalanche danger

Sat
Alpine
2 · Moderate
Treeline
2 · Moderate
Below
1 · Low
Open full map
Out of date — this forecast expired 4 years ago. You’re viewing past conditions, not the current bulletin.

Highlights

Stable weather and avalanche conditions continue across the Selkirk and Cabinets.  New wind slabs above 4000' on isolated slopes are currently the biggest concern.  There's plenty of good snow to play on today, so it should be easy to avoid the uncertainty of wind loaded slopes.  A storm moving in today could increase avalanche concerns as the day goes on.

Avalanche problems

  • Persistent Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Unlikely
    Size
    1–2

    Two crust layers (Persistent weak layers) are pretty obvious in the snowpack today. You can find both crusts across the zone at all elevations and aspects. The upper crust, which was formed during a rain event on 1/13, is pretty close to the surface. It has weak snow above and below the crust, but hasn’t proven to be overly susceptible to failure, yet. One of the reasons we're not seeing avalanches happen because of this layer is the lack of a cohesive slab above it. Most likely today, you'll find about a 12'' of soft, unconsolidated snow above it.The second crust is about a meter (100cms) below the surface. This crust is more intact in most places but is deep enough in the snowpack that it'd be hard to trigger. Yesterday, Micah and I dug down to it and were surprised by the failure characteristics upon testing. Even though this layer is lying dormant in the snowpack, we haven't completely stopped keeping an eye on it. I don't see this layer coming alive today, but it's worth being mindful of. If it were to fail and avalanche, it would be a big, deep slab avalanche (low frequency, high consiquence). 

  • Wind Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Possible
    Size
    1–2

     Recent light winds have formed isolated areas of wind pillowing in the upper elevations. A subtle wind slab sitting on top of a weaker layer could tip the balance of strength over stress, but is not likely today. A small slab could trigger a step down to the current persistent slab problem. While recent wind influence has not been overly alarming, it can be found if looked for. Surface etching and distinct surface firmness changes are signs you're in the wind slab house. 

Avalanche Discussion

Our Thursday tour took us up the Lightening Creek area of the Cabinets. Lower in the drainage winds were calm but became light near ridgetop. We made note of both snow-covered trees and the low-density snow surface readily available for wind transport. The incoming weather cold front is shifting prevailing winds, leading to atypical wind directions.  Uncertainty lies in forecasted wind intensity and new precipitation amounts. Incoming new winds and snow deliver a new intricacy.

IPAC Forcasters goal is to provide as much clear information about a complex problem. If you get out in the mountains today, let us know where and what you see by submitting an observation. It really helps us figure out what's going on in the backcountry! 

IPAC OBSERVATION PLATFORM- https://www.idahopanhandleavalanche.org/observations#/view

Regions covered