Avalanche forecast

San Francisco Peaks / Kachina Peaks Wilderness

Kachina Peaks Avalanche Center
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Avalanche danger

Sun
Alpine
2 · Moderate
Treeline
2 · Moderate
Below
1 · Low
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Highlights

Backcountry travelers may trigger wind slab avalanches on all elevations near and above treeline especially where newly deposited windpockets are exposed to sun.  The San Francisco peaks have been inundated by multiple days of severe winds, stripping most areas but creating large and hardened wind slabs in isolated locations.  The potential to trigger a large deep persistent slab avalanche in loaded areas on North and Northeast slopes remains a possibility.  

Avalanche problems

  • Wind Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Possible
    Size
    1–2

    Much of the upper elevation snow has been stripped from the San Francisco peaks, and remaining snow is highly wind effected.  Hard wind slabs exist in isolated locations.  While these slabs may be difficult to trigger, especially as temperatures remain cold, direct sun could soften some wind loaded spots making them more susceptible to failing.  Large amounts of snow have been sublimated into the upper atmosphere, and rocks are present in wind stripped areas.  In a few rare locations soft slabs have formed, these slabs are more reactive and could release under the weight of a skier or rider.

  • Deep Persistent Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Unlikely
    Size
    1–2.5

    Some starting zones on north and northeast slopes have been additionally loaded by the most recent storm and wind transport.  In wind loaded locations basal facets may be increasingly stressed by this added weight.  Recent observations indicate that the presence of this weak layer, found deep below the snowpack at ground level, is diminishing.  However, the distrubition of this problem may vary significantly, even in adjacent locations.  While triggering a slide of this type would be unlikely, the consequences would be severe.  An added issue is that in some circumstances a wind slab release could step down and trigger this persistent weak layer.  The only way to determine the presence of this problem is to examine the snowpack, and in many loaded areas this could create a dangerous situation.  Do not assume that avalanches will not occur under the weight of single skier.  Use caution and continue to avoid these heavily loaded starting zones.

Avalanche Discussion

High velocity winds from nearly all directions have hammered  the upper elevations of the San Francisco Peaks in the last four days.  Friday afforded a respite from this large-scale wind event and the upper elevation terrain has unearthed as a different landscape than last weekend.  Wind board and scoured slopes are now present on almost all aspects and elevations.  While limited, a few slopes received addition loading, especially in common starting zones.  The extent of the deep slab problem remains hard to assess due to access and the number of slide paths, but the possibility of this further loading producing ideal conditions for a deep slab avalanche remains.

Most wind slabs above treeline are hardened and difficult to trigger.  Cold temperatures have contributed to decreased probability of these slabs releasing, but it is important to remember that sun could soften and weaken some of these slabs making them more reactive.  In a few locations soft wind slabs have been noted.  These are more reactive, and although they are likely to be isolated and small, they should be noted and avoided.  These slides may be small, but if triggered above terrain traps, such as rocks and cliffs, they could have significant consequences.

On west, north and east slopes a buried layer of near surface facets exists between the old and new storm layers.  This layer produced fracture planes in compression tests in multiple locations over the last few days, however the upper layer of snow remains unconsolidated, meaning that propagation is unlikely.  This weak layer could become problematic as it is loaded by future storms, such as the one forecast for Monday.  

Level 2 Avalanche Course, Feb. 10-13KPAC needs a few more students to run the level 2 course, Feb. 10-13. There is a brief meeting Friday evening, followed by a tremendous three day experience and at least two full days in the Inner Basin. A previous Level 1 course certificate is required. Register by next weekend or the course cancels. 🙁 https://events.humanitix.com/avalanche-training-level-ii-feb-10-13-2023

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