Avalanche forecast

Mount Shasta

Mount Shasta Avalanche Center
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Avalanche danger

Sat
Alpine
4 · High
Treeline
3 · Considerable
Below
2 · Moderate
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Out of date — this forecast expired 4 years ago. You’re viewing past conditions, not the current bulletin.

Highlights

Meltdown and crust...what happened and what resulted in the last 24 hours, but always looking forward. A winter weather advisory is in effect this afternoon through Saturday. A cold front associated with an atmospheric river will push onshore and gradually move inland today and tonight. Mother nature doesn't wait for us to sop up our tears, she turns them into snow! Should the weather pan out, new snow amounts over the next 24 hours will be significant. Avalanche risk is still a concern. Deep snow conditions and avalanche hazard require expert level backcountry skills. Pay attention to the five red flags of avalanche danger at all times. 

Avalanche problems

  • Wind Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Likely
    Size
    1–4

    A storm over the next 24–48 hours will bring significant fresh snow and south wind. Near and above treeline, unstable slabs will likely reside within fresh wind slabs forming on top of our rain on snow event. Recent observations from above treeline have been nonexistent. We haven't been able to see the mountain in multiple days. Backcountry travel in deep, wet snow conditions has been arduous. Existing and new wind slabs are very likely. Use small test slopes to get a feel for wind slab sensitivity. South wind has battered the mountain and will continue to do so. Slopes on the north half of the compass will be most wind loaded. Drifts have been observed in areas not typically drifted. As we have been saying, crazy weather could make for crazy avalanches. Be extra cautious out there. 

  • Storm Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Possible
    Size
    1–2

    The rain on snow event and last night's colder temps will have locked up the current snowpack below and near treeline. This morning, storm slab risk is minimal. Storm slab concern today will reside within fresh snow building on top of a frozen surface crust. Three inches of new snow fell overnight. If and when new snow measures more than 6 inches, start to think about storm slabs. Direct feedback such as shooting cracks or easy ski cut slabs on small test slopes is one of the best indicators that storm slabs are possible in bigger terrain. 

Avalanche Discussion

Honesty is best. We're not exactly sure how things will look out there this morning, but here is our professional opinion. Yesterday's meltdown was quite the spectacle and created widespread, rain soak surface layers of the snowpack. Cooling temperatures last night froze said top layer. A breakable crust is a likely result and the next bed surface for avalanches. If the weather forecast verifies, feet of snow is expected over the next 24–48 hours. New snow will be accompanied by strong south wind. Odds are that avalanches associated with the rapid warm-up have already gone off. Today's main concern is new storm snow layers resting on top of yesterday's rain crust.DEEP SNOW CONDITIONS: In conditions like we are experiencing now, rangers have responded to 911 calls of people heading into the backcountry on snowmobiles, becoming stuck in deep snow and not able to get themselves out. If you're heading into the wild, don't get casual day syndrome. Make sure your skills match the conditions. It's the real deal out there. Expert level riding/skiing and terrain navigation is required. Be prepared. 

ROAD & RECREATION SITE STATUS: 

  • The Everitt Memorial Highway and Castle Lake road are CLOSED 
  • Pilgrim Creek and Deer Mountain Snowmobile Park's are OPEN
  • Mt Shasta Ski Park - OPEN
  • Sand Flat Winter Trails - CLOSED
  • Nordic Center - OPEN

Regions covered