Avalanche forecast

Continental

Valdez Avalanche Center
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Avalanche danger

Alpine
3 · Considerable
Treeline
3 · Considerable
Below
3 · Considerable
Out of date — this forecast expired 6 months ago. You’re viewing past conditions, not the current bulletin.

Highlights

The Avalanche Hazard remains Considerable at all elevations today. It will be likely for a person to trigger a wind slab 1-2 ft in depth. Avoiding lee slopes and cross loaded terrain features along with careful terrain management and route finding can help mitigate the problem.

Avalanche forecasts are issued Wednesday-Sunday at 8 am. 

Avalanche problems

  • Wind Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Likely
    Size
    1–2

    Northeast winds were still transporting significant amounts of snow and wind slabs were touchy on lee terrain yesterday. With gusts up to 70 mph overnight on Thompson Pass and strong winds in town, expect wind slabs to remain sensitive. Identifying and avoiding lee terrain and cross loaded features while riding or snowmachining today will be the best method for mitigating the hazard.

    Wind slabs could step down to deeper layers in the snowpack creating a larger more dangerous hard slab avalanche. (See problem 2, Persistent Slab)

    (3/10/2026) Photo: Gareth Brown

  • Persistent Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Possible
    Size
    2–3

    A layer of weak (faceted) snow is still being found in protected terrain and areas that have been loaded by recent winds rather than scoured. The distribution and depth of this 1/26 weak layer is extremely variable due to recent winds stripping certain parts of the snowpack and loading others, but if you have identified the lee terrain where the wind slab problem exists, you have also identified where this persistent slab problem exists. 

    This weak  layer is becoming more of a low likelihood, high consequence problem because of layers of stiff wind slabs that have built up on top of it bridging the weight of users. Staying off large connected faces, using safe travel protocols like spacing out, and riding one at a time are the best ways to mitigate the problem.

    HS-N-R2-D3-O

    Natural persistent slab avalanche on Averys/SW that failed at a PWL on 2/20 and ran full path ~3800'.

    Photo: Gareth Brown

  • Deep Persistent Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Unlikely
    Size
    2.5–3.5

    Weak snow near the ground is increasingly common as you move North through our forecast zones, with the Continental zone being the most concerning. Although it still remains unlikely to trigger this layer, areas that have been scoured from strong northeast winds now have a shallower snowpack making this layer closer to the surface and potentially easier for a rider to trigger.

    This is a low-likelihood, high-consequence problem—especially in steep, rocky terrain and areas where the snowpack is thin or scoured. Triggering this layer directly is unlikely at this time, but avalanches that start in the upper snowpack could step down to the basal weak layer.  There is a high degree of uncertainty regarding the poor structure at the base of the snowpack.  What we can be sure about is that this layer is less of a concern in the Maritime zone and more of a concern as you move towards the Continental zone where the snowpack is thinner and the weak layer is more developed. 

    Watch for thin spots near rock outcrops, scoured features, and along ridge tops. Wind loading adds stress to these shallow areas, and we don’t know where the tipping point is.

    (2/25/2026)

    Deep slab natural avalanche on The Wall / north/~5800'.  Failed sometime in mid February

    Photo: Jed Workman

Avalanche Discussion

Avalanche activity in the last 72 hours:  3/9- D2 skier triggered avalanche on the south side of Meteorite-  W/SW- ~6000' - ASc-R2-D2

Forecast Discussion

Despite there being very little avalanche activity on our persistent weak layers over the past few weeks, we continue to be concerned about the structure of our snowpack. A thin snowpack paired with very cold temperatures is causing a large temperature gradient within the snow which sets the stage for faceting, making a weak snowpack even weaker. 

Whether you have years of experience riding in Thompson Pass or are visiting for the first time, this year's snowpack is not normal. Keep your margins for safety a little wider.

For more information regarding our snowpack, see our Season summary, Observations, and avalanche activity sections.  

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