Avalanche forecast

Southeast Mountains

Crested Butte Avalanche Center
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Avalanche danger

Sat
Alpine
2 · Moderate
Treeline
2 · Moderate
Below
1 · Low
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Highlights

Sheltered or scoured snow is safer.  Say that 5 times fast, and apply it in your travels to avoid the lingering threat of triggering a hard slab up to several feet thick.  The most problematic terrain features will look smooth, hard, or rounded from recent wind loading.  

Avalanche problems

  • Persistent Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Possible
    Size
    1–2

    After below-average snowfall for the last three weeks, weak layers near the ground are dormant on many slopes, while some recently wind-loaded slopes have become more reactive.  Additionally, the recent northerly winds have formed a newer generation of persistent slabs on leeward terrain features where hard, drifted slabs buried facets or faceted crusts in the upper snowpack.   You can reduce your risk to all of these concerns by traveling on wind-sheltered or wind-eroded terrain.  Put simply: soft snow or scoured snow is safer than firm, wind-loaded snow.  

    SSE facing persistent slab on Mt. Tilton; ran during the 12/25-26 wind event.  Crown was about 2' deep, pencil hard, failed on the 11/30 crust/facet interface.   

    Photo: Zach Guy

Avalanche Discussion

Following the brutal wind event a few days ago, we can break down the travel advice into two categories: wind-sheltered terrain and wind-exposed terrain.

Wind-sheltered terrain: Avalanche hazards are small and easy to manage.  The snow surface is soft, and growing weaker each day.  On the north half of the compass, you'll be able to trigger loose dry avalanches on slopes steeper than 35 to 40 degrees.  Some slopes may be weak enough now that sluffs will start to gouge deeper and entrain more snow than expected.  This observation from Snodgrass sums it up.  

Wind-exposed terrain: Avalanche hazards are larger and more difficult to manage.   The snow surface is firm and variable.   Many slopes were wind-eroded and offer safer options: look for wavey, heavily textured snow call sastrugi to identify those slopes.  Concave and leeward catchments from northerly winds caught the drifting snow and formed dense slabs. Some of those slabs formed over weak layers or added stress to weak layers deeper in the snowpack.  We have more evidence of these issues in the Southeast Mountains, including frequent collapses and notable avalanche activity in Upper Cement Creek, explosive results yesterday at CBMR, and a skier caught and carried on Mt. Emmons.  The Northwest Mountains experienced the same wind-loading event, though the recently buried weak layers and over-stressed structures appear to be less common on a regional scale.  We suspect there are still some problematic slopes out there and suggest cautious travel at higher elevations.  This Ruby Range observation (click through the media gallery) from before the wind event demonstrates several layers and structures of concern on what are now leeward aspects from northerly winds.  You might find unstable structures on slopes that were shallow and weak all season and recently experienced significant loading, like this large avalanche on the west face of Gothic.   The easiest way to manage the problem reliably in both forecast zones is to simply stay off of the slopes with obvious wind loading from the recent wind event. 

Regions covered