Northern New Mexico

It's becoming more difficult to trigger a large and dangerous persistent slab avalanche but not impossible.  Near and above treeline on wind-loaded slopes pose the greatest concern.  You're more likely to impact weak layers in likely trigger points where you find a shallower snowpack. These will be areas near rock outcroppings or on the margins of the slab.  Although the likelihood is lower, the consequences remain high if you were to trigger an avalanche as it could break 3 to 5 feet deep. Below treeline, wind sheltered terrain on northerly aspects will provide safer and better riding today.  

Another unseasonably warm day for the end of February is forecasted today where we could see temperatures hit 50 degrees at 9000'.  High cirrus clouds and strong winds should help limit some of the warming in the mountains,  Get ready for some windy weather, as winds start to ramp up today and peak on Tuesday where we could see damaging winds above 70 mph.  The NWS has us under a High Wind Watch starting around mid-day where we could see gusts in the 50's.  A warm and windy system enters NM Monday with the bulk of the moisture coming Monday evening into Tuesday.  The Tusas mountains in NM and southern CO look to favored with this strong SW flow, but we should see close to a foot fo snow by the time the storm exits Tuesday evening.  

If you are getting out today, continue to watch out for loose wet snow avalanches on solar aspects.  These loose wet snow avalanches would be small but could knock you off your feet. Pinwheels and rollerballs are indications that the snow surface is becoming wet and it's time to head to a shadier aspect.  Be aware that a smaller loose wet snow avalanche could step down into deeper weak layers creating a larger more destructive avalanchel    

Unfortunately, skiing and riding conditions have become highly variable, with most of our solar aspects forming crusts, while upper elevation terrain has been pressed into stiff wind board and breakable crusts from the strong winds on Wednesday.  Thankfully northerly wind-sheltered slopes continue to ski well due to diurnal recrystallization and faceting of the upper 15cm of the snowpack.  

It's now been close to two weeks since our last snowfall and triggering a persistent slab avalanche has become increasingly stubborn as we push further away from the last loading event.  With that said, weak layers continue to remain reactive and have been slow to heal where the snowpack remains shallow <1.5 m.  These weak layers exist near the ground from depth hoar or the early January drought layer or are found in the middle of the pack around crusts.   It will most likely take you to find the right slab and weak layer combination in steep terrain where the snowpack is relatively shallow and you can impact these weak layers.  If you were to trigger an avalanche, these avalanches would be large potentially breaking 3 to 5 deep, and come with significant consequences.  It sounds like a broken record at this point, but we're living in a world of lower likelihood, but high consequences.

 Below treeline, the snowpack remains shallower and the healing process of weak layers has been slower.  Although we've seen warm temperatures for this time of year during the day.  Overnight temps have been dropping down into the teens for most nights. Slabs that formed on the surface during the February 7th storm that produced natural avalanches have weakened and faceted where we are not seeing much for avalanche activity.  Although the avalanche danger is low at this elevation band, that doesn't mean avalanches are impossible.  Steep open exposed terrain on northerly aspects will be the most suspect. This below treeline terrain will become problematic again once we introduce a load and more cohesive slab on top as weak layers continue to remain weak.  

Over the last two weeks, the upper portions of the snowpack have gone through a lot of changes from crusts on our solar aspects and lower elevation terrain, to surface hoar development and near surface faceting through diurnal temperature swings on northerly aspects.  Upper elevations have had some slopes stripped and scoured while others have been pressed into firm harder surfaces from strong winds last Wednesday.  These surfaces don't pose much of an avalanche risk right now, however will become concerning when we do introduce a slab on top potentially in the next several days.

Enjoy the last couple of days of spring in the end of February as winds and a storm system push into our area Monday into Tuesday bringing a much needed return to winter.  If you're not mountain biking or rock climbing during this warm high-pressure period and getting out for a tour, continue to evaluate terrain and snowpack carefully, thinking about the consequences if you were to trigger a large persistent slab avalanche.