Avalanche forecast

Mount Shasta

Mount Shasta Avalanche Center
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Avalanche danger

Sat
Alpine
2 · Moderate
Treeline
1 · Low
Below
1 · Low
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Out of date — this forecast expired 3 years ago. You’re viewing past conditions, not the current bulletin.

Highlights

You could trigger an avalanche on leeward aspects near and above treeline where wind has drifted snow several feet deep, especially in steep, exposed terrain. This problem is one of decreasing likelihood but high consequences. As the sun warms southerly aspects, wet loose snow will release and could knock you off your feet or machine, carrying you through hazardous terrain. Maintain awareness of your surroundings, watch for cracking, and evaluate the snow with care before committing to travel in avalanche terrain.

Avalanche problems

  • Wind Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Unlikely
    Size
    1–3

    Wind slabs may be difficult to locate and stubborn to trigger, but if you set one off, it could break several feet deep. Your chances of encountering this problem are highest in exposed terrain above treeline, though the upper end of the middle elevations may hold lingering pockets of wind-drifted snow, too. Weather models predict the wind to be calm today, but with a significant amount of snow available for transport above treeline, be on the lookout for blowing snow. 

    Identify areas where the wind has left its mark by pillows, drifts, and wavy snow surfaces. Existing wind slabs may be shy to display signs of instability, but you've likely found one if you observe cracks shooting out from your sled or planks.

    (2/14/2024)

    Ten foot shooting crack on a wind loaded slope

    Photo: Cory Beattie

  • Loose Wet

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Possible
    Size
    1–1.5

    Sunny skies and a continued warming trend will increase the potential for natural loose snow avalanches today. With this kind of avalanche, we are more concerned with the surrounding terrain that it could carry us through than we are concerned about the avalanche actually burying us. Be cautious as you travel, watching out for what's above you and areas of sun-exposed, steep, rocky terrain where you are most likely to find this problem. Rollerballs or pinwheels of snow moving downhill are indicators of rising surface instability. 

    (2/23/2024)

    Roller balls off the SE aspect of Green Butte. A sign of rising potential for wet loose avalanches.

    Photo: Cory Beattie

Avalanche Discussion

The Everitt Memorial Highway and Castle Lake roads are currently closed. Siskiyou County's road crews are hard at work clearing the snow, but unfortunately, one blower down means the reopening might take longer than expected, possibly stretching out to several days or more. 

Today we have another chance to get out and enjoy the sunshine. Although our usual automobile access to 6,000+ feet that we're so spoiled with is currently unavailable, there are plenty of opportunities for backcountry travel. Here's a few of your options: tour or snowshoe up the Southside of Mount Shasta by parking below the gate at McBride Campground, or you could head out to the Eastside of the forecast area to enjoy fresh groomed snowmobile trails at the Pilgrim Creek and Deer Mountain Snowmobile Parks, or turn to the west for an adventurous trek up the South Fork of the Sacramento.

Yesterday, Nick and I went up to investigate the start zone of the very large avalanche that occurred in Avalanche Gulch on President's Day. While additional snowfall and wind loading has erased most of the start zone, we found the remnants of the crown to be at ~10,500 feet on the W/SW aspect of Green Butte Ridge. The avalanche started on steep slopes above treeline and came to rest in low-angle terrain below treeline. This highlights the importance of knowing where you are, where you're going and what's around you while traveling in the backcountry. Click here to learn more.

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