Avalanche forecast

Gunnison

Crested Butte Avalanche Center
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Avalanche danger

Mon
Alpine
2 · Moderate
Treeline
1 · Low
Below
1 · Low
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Highlights

A trace to 1 inch of snow accumulated overnight while alpine wind speeds averaged near 20mph with gusts around 40mph. If those winds were able to find much snow for transport, backcountry riders could encounter small wind slabs at upper elevations. Otherwise normal caution travel advice and a LOW avalanche danger rating will cover the vast majority of our forecast area. Snow available for loose wet avalanche activity has mostly transitioned over the last couple of days. Today's high temperatures are forecasted to be cooler than the last couple of days. Loose wet avalanche concerns have now become more isolated and smaller in size. If you find an area with a few inches of wet snow on the snow surface, then you will have found one of the remaining areas to trigger a loose wet avalanche in steep terrain. It's kind of like a white Christmas morning out there, just without much new snow. 

Avalanche problems

  • Wind Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Possible
    Size
    1–1.5

    This past week has been dominated by moderate to strong winds from the west to southwest, with a few small snowstorms adding some fuel for wind slab formation. Upper elevations in the Ruby Range and the northern Elk Mountains may hold onto some lingering wind slabs. These slabs would now be fairly small in size and remain stubborn to human trigger. A wind slab is classically represented by a rounded or lens-shaped snow deposit, where additional snow has accumulated on the lee side of the terrain feature. Shooting cracks, active snow transport, and fresh cornice formation all point to Wind Slab formation.

    Blowing snow on Scarps Ridge. 4/15.

  • Persistent Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Unlikely
    Size
    1.5–2

    Slab avalanches breaking into old weak layers several feet deep have become unlikely. Higher elevation, northerly facing terrain still holds a dry, winterlike snowpack; thus we can't completely eliminate the potential for a rare but large slab avalanche on these aspects. The most suspect terrain is where snow coverage is shallower, especially on convex, unsupported slopes or near rock bands. You are most likely to trigger a slide from a shallower spot on the slope. If you are skiing or riding in that type of terrain, reduce your group's exposure during uphill travel and choose appropriate safe zones from a large avalanche while descending. Let your friend wrestle their stuck snowmobile off of suspect slopes by themselves. Over the last month, The Aspen forecast area has seen more accumulating snow and more persistent slab avalanche activity, such as this recent very large avalanche near Snowmass (observed 4/14).  

    Example of our most recent persistent slab avalanche that likely failed around March 30th.  This large avalanche highlights the type of terrain that remains most worrisome:  northerly, rocky, and unsupported.  

Avalanche Discussion

With not much new snow and colder temperatures forecast for today, compared to the last couple of days, the avalanche danger has decreased. Loose wet avalanches were the primary concern for near and below treeline elevations over the last couple of days. On Friday, the new snow that had accumulated over the past week, began transitioning from dry to wet and created loose wet avalanche conditions. This transition continued yesterday with high temperatures at 11,000ft climbing into the 40 to 45-degree range. Southerly facing slopes had already been cooked and presented very little loose wet avalanche concerns at these elevations. High temperatures today are expected to be about 5 degrees cooler than yesterday and loose wet avalanche concerns have become further isolated so the problem was removed from the list. 

Westerly winds have remained elevated, but there just isn't much available snow for them to transport into fresh wind slabs. It is recommended to still evaluate the terrain for a potential wind slab avalanche problem at upper elevations, however, you can expect this avalanche problem to have become more isolated in its distribution and remaining stubborn to human trigger. Last night's inch of new snow will not have changed the big picture. Just don't let a fresh 3" wind slab catch you off guard in extreme terrain. 

We are running low on important conditions to write about, and I think that is telling of the conditions. Over the last month and a half, we have seen a few major warm-ups that have seen wet slab avalanche concerns come and go. The persistent slab avalanche problem has become unlikely with no concerning feedback in recent weeks. Upper elevation extreme terrain on the northern half of the compass would be the best spot to find a remaining slab over faceted snow. 

Avalanche conditions have now progressed well into a normal spring setup. Those conditions will be summarized in our spring travel advice that will be posted on the homepage this evening. This will be a great resource for tips to manage the upcoming spring conditions. Today will be the last daily avalanche forecast issued by the CBAC for this season. During our off-season, the CBAC will continue to update the observations page and update our social media accounts to alert users of unusual or noteworthy avalanche conditions, should they develop. 

From all of us here at the CBAC, have a safe and fun spring! We hope to see you out in the backcountry making the most of the snow before it melts. Otherwise, we'll see you next fall. 

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