Avalanche forecast

Continental

Valdez Avalanche Center
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Avalanche danger

Alpine
3 · Considerable
Treeline
2 · Moderate
Below
2 · Moderate
Out of date — this forecast expired last year. You’re viewing past conditions, not the current bulletin.

Highlights

The avalanche hazard will increase to Considerable above 4000 feet as new snowfall and strong wind are expected to begin today.  Human triggered avalanches will be likely up to 1 foot in depth in areas that receive more than 8 inches of snowfall during the day.  Natural avalanches are possible in areas of steep terrain that are receiving heavy snowfall.

Avalanche Forecasts are issued Wednesday-Sunday at 8am

Avalanche problems

  • Storm Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Likely
    Size
    1–2

    Today's avalanche hazard will depend on the amount of new snow that falls during the day and the accumulation rate.  Moderate to strong SE winds are expected to accompany this snowfall, creating deeper pockets of snow near high elevation ridge lines that are more sensitive.  Areas that receive less than 8 inches of new snow and are unaffected by SE winds will remain in a Moderate hazard level.

    Expect for instabilities to arrive as our snowpack receives a new load of snowfall.  6-12 inches of snow is expected for our area.  The timing for this new snow looks like it will mostly occur during the evening -overnight hours.  A considerable rating has been applied at upper elevation due to the uncertainty of the timing and amount of the upcoming snowfall.  Solar aspects with a melt freeze crust may not bond as well initially.

    Pay attention to how much new snow has accumulated and how much wind redistribution is occurring.  Small inconsequential test slopes and hand shear pits are helpful tools for quickly gathering information.  Watch for signs of instability, such as shooting crack and collapsing, that would indicate the snowpack has the energy required to produce an avalanche.

  • Persistent Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Possible
    Size
    1.5–2

    There are currently 2 persistent weak layers on our radar, both are believed to be limited to terrain below 3000'.  There is a layer of buried surface hoar from Valentine's Day as well as weak snow below a decomposing rain crust from late January. New snowfall will add more stress to these layers and may increase the reactivity of these layers in the specific elevation band where they exist.

     Buried surface hoar from 2/14 exists in previously wind protected areas from 1500 -2500 feet.  This layer is difficult to identify as it has only been found in a narrow elevation band and exists in terrain that was protected from the strong outflow (North) wind event that occurred in late January.  This layer has been found on average between 12-20 inches in depth.

    Below 1500 feet, a rain crust is buried 12-16 inches, and has shown reactivity in recent observations. Collapsing and propagation in ECTS from multiple locations have been observed. Currently, we have not seen any avalanche activity on this layer.

      To limit exposure to both of these layers avoid terrain traps and consider using conservative terrain while moving through low elevations..  There is uncertainty on the current and future reactivity of these two layers. We are keeping these on our list, as current weather conditions will continue to stress these layers. 

     

    (3/3/2025)

    Developed surface hoar grain that has been found in a narrow elevation band in areas previously wind protected.  Cracked Ice/2000'/N/down 30cms

    Photo: Gareth Brown

  • Loose Wet

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Possible
    Size
    1–2

    Wet loose avalanches have been a concern over recent days as temperatures have been above seasonal norms, and a couple of days of direct sun have been affecting new snow on solar aspects.  Wet loose activity is expected to be limited today as a melt freeze crust likely exists on solar aspects, and overcast conditions are expected.  If rain occurs at low elevation expect for wet loose activity to occur.

    When assessing wet loose hazards, it is essential to take the hazard in relation to the terrain you are exposing yourself to.  Are there terrain traps? Are there consequences if I were to be swept off my feet by even a small avalanche? 

    The size and shape of the terrain above you along with the amount of loose snow available to slide, directly correlates to the size of the wet loose activity that can occur. Terrain traps and exposure below you compound consequences.

     

    (3/1/2025)

    Wet loose activity originating from rocks on steep south facing terrain.

    Photo: Gareth Brown

Avalanche Discussion

Observed Avalanche Activity last 72 hours: 

  Small to moderate wet loose activity in steep low elevation terrain.

Forecast Discussion:

Above 3000' a stable snowpack continues to be observed with good structure and strength.  The snowpack is not currently under stress. However, new snowfall that is expected to arrive today will create a temporary uptick in the sensitivity of the upper snowpack.  The degree and depth of instability will depend directly on the amount of new snowfall that occurs, the rate of accumulation, and how much wind is associated.

New snow will need time to bond with the snowpack.  On solar aspects where a melt freeze crust may exist, instabilities may be more pronounced

Below 3000' the structure of the snowpack is not nearly as strong as mid-upper elevations, especially below 1500'.  Various rain crusts are in varying states of decay and weak snow has been observed below the uppermost crust.  This weakness in the snowpack is only expected to be a concern in steep low elevation terrain, but may be a concern for Ice Climbers trying to navigate steep unsupported slopes.

Buried surface hoar has been identified in a few places between 1500-2500'.  This layer has not shown signs of being reactive yet and the narrow elevation band is not conducive for significant human triggered avalanche propagations.  Although, small avalanches could be possible on isolated terrain features in terrain that is protected from outflow wind events below 2500'.  Incremental snowfall will continue to stress these layers where they exist.

 

Additional Information:

A weather and snowpack season history is available by clicking on the Season Summary tab which is located below the bottom line statement once you have entered the full forecast.

Season Snowfall Data

Location 24 hour Snowfall Inches- 3/2 24 hour Snow Water Equivalent Inches Height of Snow March Snowfall Inches Season Total Snowfall Valdez    0    0    44     0 N/O     Thompson Pass    0    0   N/O    0    ~500 Nicks    0    0    138    0 N/O 46 Mile    0     0   22    0 N/O

Regions covered