Avalanche forecast

Turnagain Pass and Girdwood

Chugach National Forest Avalanche Center
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Avalanche danger

Sun
Alpine
3 · Considerable
Treeline
3 · Considerable
Below
2 · Moderate
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Highlights

It has been one week since the fatal avalanche on Seattle Ridge and avalanche conditions remain dangerous despite relatively calm weather through the week. There are still chances a person could trigger a large avalanche 2' deep or more on a layer of buried surface hoar anywhere above 1,500'. The only way to completely avoid this problem is to stick to low angle slopes with nothing steep above. Warm temperatures this week caused an increase in glide avalanches and wet loose avalanches. Debris from these slides is running below treeline in places like Girdwood and Seward. Be on the lookout for glide cracks and avoid spending time under them as they seem especially primed for release and can run all the way to flat ground at sea level.

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SPECIAL ANNOUNCEMENTS:

Sean Sullivan, Cory Davis, and Travis Temple will be hosting a free avalanche awareness and rescue training event in memory of Tucker Challans today, March 29, at Alaska West Air in Nikiski. See the flyer in the media gallery below for more information.

Avalanche problems

  • Persistent Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Possible
    Size
    2–3

    We continue to find the buried surface hoar 1 to 2' below the surface in Turnagain Pass. The last 2 days there have been unstable stability test results on Pete's North and Cornbiscuit on this layer. The buried surface hoar has proven to be especially dangerous and unreliable so we don't trust stable test results right now, but an unstable result is a clear sign that a large avalanche could be triggered by a person on this layer. Unfortunately, the only safe option right now is to completely avoid slopes above 30 degrees. Many of the human-triggered avalanches that have occurred in the last month have been triggered from a low angle slope with a steep slope above so even if we are enjoying low angle slopes we need to ensure there is nothing steep overhead.

    If you decide to venture into steeper terrain, look for slopes without consequenses like rocks or trees. Also, ensure that the slope fans out at the bottom with no gully features that could allow debris to pile up. Many of the human-triggered avalanches on this weak layer have occurred on slopes with many tracks already present so previous tracks are not an indication of safety. The photo here shows how many tracks were on the slope of the fatal avalanche last Saturday before it released with a snowmachine-trigger.

    (3/23/2025)

    This is a view of most of the path of the fatal avalanche the day after it occurred. The rider was buried in the upper lobe of debris on the sunny bench on the left flank of the avalanche. The bottom of the debris pile is hidden behind a moraine in the lower right corner of the frame.  

    Photo: Chugach National Forest Avalanche Center

  • Glide Cracks

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Possible
    Size
    2–3

    Large temperature swings this week have expedited the transition to a spring snowpack. This transition will continue for many weeks and brings a great deal of uncertainty. There are many factors that affect the timing of warming and melt water infiltrating a snowpack, which leads to wet snow problems. This makes forecasting the timing of these problems difficult and an extra margin of safety is a good idea. Because we have this especially dangerous weak layer described in problem 1, the safest option is to stick to low angle slopes as our extra margin. An extra margin of safety can also include being critical of safe spots, ensuring we are watching partners, and choosing slopes without consequences.

    Wet loose avalanches have been releasing naturally as the snow heats up in the afternoon. The forecast is for the clouds to clear out today, but this problem may occur even if some high clouds stick around. Roller balls are the indicator that wet loose avalanches could be triggered by a person. Wet snow is heavy and difficult to escape especially when a lot of it becomes entrained. 

    Cornice fall has been occurring naturally as well with warming temperatures. In some places (most recently in Portage above the Shakespeare Glacier) these large triggers have produced slab avalanches beneath. Keep an eye on cornices if you are passing beneath and give them plenty of room on the ridge. 

    (3/27/2025)

    Recent glide and wet loose avalanches on the south side of Tincan.

    Photo: Andrew Schauer

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