Avalanche forecast

Blues

Wallowa Avalanche Center
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Avalanche danger

Sun
Alpine
2 · Moderate
Treeline
2 · Moderate
Below
2 · Moderate
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Out of date — this forecast expired 4 years ago. You’re viewing past conditions, not the current bulletin.

Highlights

The possibility remains for skiers and riders to trigger large avalanches involving weak snow that was buried in late November. These weak layers are located on northwest, north, northeast, and east facing slopes at all elevations. The shallower areas such as rock outcroppings and wind scoured terrain are the weakest areas and most susceptible to human triggered avalanches. It is recommended that recreationalists make conservative terrain choices today by staying off and out from under terrain steeper than 30 degrees.

This forecast sponsored by:Trail Head Baker City

Avalanche problems

  • Persistent Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Possible
    Size
    1–2

    We continue to see weak persistent grain types (facets and surface hoar)  that formed during the cool dry weather we encountered in November. These persistent weak layers are now buried in the lower part of our snowpack. These buried persistent weak layers now have 2'-3' of snow perched precariously on top of them.  The weight of the newer, stronger snow is putting a lot of stress on the weak, unconsolidated snow (persistent weak layers) in the lower regions of the snowpack. Several slopes throughout our forecast area have avalanched naturally on steep terrain  because the persistent  weak layers at and near the bottom of the snowpack were no longer able to support the weight of the snow from above. Similar weak slopes lie in waiting for the weight of a recreationalist to be the trigger that causes a slope to avalanche. We have had reports of human triggered avalanches in the last couple of weeks as well . This past week, we are seeing observations posted about collapsing in the snowpack, natural avalanches occurring, and continued weak layer reactivity in our snowpits. These "red flags" are telling us that we still have snowpack weakness on northwest, north, northeast, and east facing terrain at all elevations especially where the snow is shallow. The likelihood of triggering an avalanche while we are entrenched in this cycle is low, but the chances of triggering a large and consequential avalanche is high. The best way to avoid this scenario is to stay off of and out from under slopes steeper than 30 degrees. This persistent slab problem will take some time to heal and will require a fair amount of patience from us humans  in order to avoid getting caught in an avalanche. For today and the foreseeable future, making very conservative terrain choices is recommended while enjoying ourselves in the mountains.

    (12/16/2022)

    Still observing poor structure, but also seeing improving stability tests, at least at this particular location.

Avalanche Discussion

Please visit the observations area of this website for more details of snowpack observations from this past week, throughout our forecast area. Also, I am still seeing barely submerged rocks and logs throughout my ski tours. Early season hazards still exist !

Thanks to all who contributed the great observations this past week. Your observations are greatly appreciated !

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