Avalanche forecast

Summit Lake

Chugach National Forest Avalanche Center
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Avalanche danger

Thu
Alpine
2 · Moderate
Treeline
1 · Low
Below
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Highlights

Windy weather in the upper elevations last night (above 2,500') will keep wind slab avalanches the main concern in the Summit Lake area. These slabs are likely to be around a foot deep and could be easy to trigger. There is also a chance of triggering a larger avalanche, up to 3' deep, in steep wind loaded bowls where weak snow exists near the ground. Below 2,500', cooling temperatures should be freezing the wet snow making avalanches in this elevation band unlikely.

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Avalanche problems

  • Wind Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Possible
    Size
    1–2

    Through rain and snow, Santa appeared,His sleigh aglow, his reindeer cheered.“Christmas comes, whatever may fall,Be it rain, or snow, or none at all!”

    Happy Holidays everyone! After a week of rain down low and snow up high we should see a break in weather today and into the weekend. It has been several days since snow fell in the Summit Lake area but with a bump in easterly winds last night, there could be some fresh wind slabs in the higher elevations where dry snow exists. That said, wind slab avalanches and cornice falls will be the main concern for anyone headed out in search of dry snow in the upper elevations. 

    If skies clear out enough, today will be a day to look for areas the previous winds have loaded slopes and grew cornices. New wind slabs should be fairly easy to identify by watching for smooth rounded surfaces, stiff snow over softer snow, and of course cracks that shoot out from you. They could be anywhere from 6" to a foot or so deep. How quickly these will bond is the question and since they could be less than 24 hours old, that's well within the window of still being easy to trigger. Also, remember to give cornices a wide berth along ridgelines.

    Holiday storm cycle snowfall estimates from Thursday through Wednesday morning above 2,500' with rainfall amounts below 2500':

    • Girdwood: 24-36+" snow (4-5.5" water)
    • Portage: 40 -60+" snow (15" water)
    • Turnagain Pass: 20-36" snow (4.2" water)
    • Summit Lake: 7-9" snow (0.8" water)
    • Seward/Lost Lake: 14-20" snow (2.1" water)

    Wet snow avalanches? In the mid elevations, where rain fell for several days, the wet snow is beginning to freeze as temperatures cool slightly. Because of this, we don't expect wet snow avalanches to be an issue. 

  • Persistent Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Possible
    Size
    2–3

    We are still concerned that a person might be able to trigger a larger avalanche that breaks in weak snow in the mid or base of the snowpack. This issue is on steep wind loaded slopes and bowls above 2,500'. With such poor visibility during the past week's stormy weather, it's still unknown if any avalanche activity occurred recently. With so much uncertainty, it's still worth keeping in mind for anyone heading to Summit Lake in search of higher elevation snow. 

    As we've been saying, being suspect of steep open wind loaded slopes will be prudent. Look out for recent avalanches, whumpfing/collapsing in the snowpack, and shooting cracks. That said, with this type of avalanche, these signs may not be present before an avalanche is triggered. 

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