Avalanche forecast

Summit Lake

Chugach National Forest Avalanche Center
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Avalanche danger

Mon
Alpine
3 · Considerable
Treeline
3 · Considerable
Below
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Highlights

Active weather returns today. The chances of large natural and human-triggered avalanches will increase as the wind picks up during the day ahead of tonight's precipitation. This includes the potential for relatively shallow wind slab avalanches failing near the surface as well as much larger avalanches failing on weak snow near the ground. There is also still a very good chance we will see continued glide avalanche activity. Watch for increasing danger during the day, especially if the precipitation arrives earlier than expected.

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Special Announcements

Looking to dust off your rescue skills? Hatcher Pass Avalanche Center is hosting a free avalanche rescue workshop next Saturday, December 14 at the Hatcher Pass – Fishhook (Marmot) Lot. Visit hpavalanche.org for more info. 

Avalanche problems

  • Glide Cracks

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Possible
    Size
    2–3

    The glide avalanche cycle has remained active in the region, with new glide avalanches seen in Girdwood and Turnagain Pass yesterday morning. It is hard to say when this will slow down, but with more rain in the near future it is looking like this will remain a concern at least for the short term. These avalanches are large, dangerous, and unpredictable. You can reduce your exposure by avoiding traveling below open glide cracks. This usually requires getting a good look at overhead terrain before you are directly under the slope as it may be difficult to recognize a glide crack from directly below.

    (12/7/2024)

    This glide avalanche on Sunburst released as the snow finished Friday night or early Saturday morning, immediately to the looker's left of the avalanche we noticed last week.

    Photo: Andrew Schauer

  • Wind Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Likely
    Size
    1–2

    The brief break in the weather we saw yesterday is already passing, and avalanche danger is about to rise again. The most likely problem to encounter today will be natural and human-triggered wind slabs around a foot deep or deeper. The size and likelihood of these avalanches are expected to increase during the day as the weather intensifies, and they have the potential to trigger larger avalanches failing on weak snow buried near the ground (more details on this in problem 2 below). The most likely terrain to produce avalanches today will be steep slopes below ridgelines, wind loaded gullies, and steep convex rolls. Be aware of the potential for today's strong winds to trigger an avalanche naturally, and pay close attention to the terrain above you.

    Precipitation is expected to begin tonight and continue for the next several days. Avalanche conditions will become even more dangerous as the storm picks up. We saw widespread avalanche activity during the last warm and windy storm (see more details here and here). This next round is expected to be similar, with rain levels rising up to around 2000' or higher and very strong easterly winds. Pay close attention to the weather while you are out, and expect avalanche danger to rise quickly once the water turns back on.

    (12/7/2024)

    Start zones in Summit like these ones on Butch have a fresh few inches of snow on the ground that will be available for building wind slabs today.

    Photo: Mik Dalpes

  • Persistent Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Possible
    Size
    2–2.5

    The weak, faceted snow buried at the ground still has the potential to produce much larger avalanches than the shallow wind slabs failing near the surface mentioned above. These may be triggered by the strong winds arriving today, or they may lie waiting for a person to get on the slope. It is often tricky to get good feedback from these persistent weak layers, but the widespread cycle we saw just three days ago is a good indication of what this snowpack is capable of.

    Expect increasing avalanche danger as the weather becomes more active today. Pay close attention to overhead terrain since we are anticipating some natural activity. It is likely this layer has gained some strength since it was last tested, but these strong winds may be enough to push it to its breaking point.

    (12/7/2024) 

    Debris from a large natural avalanche on Tri Tip during the stormy weather in the middle of last week.

    Photo: Trevor Clayton

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