Avalanche forecast

Turnagain Pass and Girdwood

Chugach National Forest Avalanche Center
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Avalanche danger

Fri
Alpine
4 · High
Treeline
3 · Considerable
Below
2 · Moderate
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Highlights

Another day of active weather is keeping the avalanche danger elevated.  Natural avalanches are likely today in the upper elevations, where strong winds and new snow are building fresh wind and storm slabs.  In the mid-elevation band (~1,000 to 2,500'), rain and new snow are adding weight to a layer of weak snow now buried 2-5' below the surface.  While this is becoming more difficult to affect by a human, it's not out of the question that a skier or snowmachiner could trigger a very large avalanche today.

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CHUGACH STATE PARK: Dangerous avalanche conditions exist in Chugach State Park. New snow and increasing winds have formed fresh wind slabs over a weak, faceted snowpack. Human-triggered avalanches are likely in wind-loaded terrain, and avalanches may step down into deeper persistent weak layers, producing large and dangerous slides. See the updated outlook from Chugach State Park for more info.

Avalanche problems

  • Persistent Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Likely
    Size
    2–3

    Recent avalanches: Debris from natural avalanches on the north side of Sunburst was observed yesterday.Additionally,two large human-triggered avalanches last week were reported in the Turnagain Pass zone. One was triggered by a snowmachine in Warm-Up Bowl, and the other was likely a remote trigger on Sunburst; both failed on the well-documented crust/facet layer that formed during our unusually cold and dry December.

    There are numerous avalanche problems today due to active weather and a well-documented persistent weak layer buried deeper in the snowpack. If you're still keen on recreating in the backcountry, you'll likely be spending the majority of your time in the 1,000 to 2,500' elevation band today.  This is where you'll find the best visibility and surface conditions.  Unfortunately, this is also where we're finding the persistent weak layer (crust/facet combo) still very much intact and producing unstable results in our snowpits as recently as yesterday.   Currently buried ~2-5' deep, this layer is becoming more difficult for a skier or snowmachiner to trigger. It is unlikely to give us any feedback we yearn for, such as shooting cracks or big whumpfs, before avalanching.  The slab is deep enough now that if a skier or rider were to initiate an avalanche on this buried weak layer, it would be catastrophic.  Trigger points, such as small trees or rocks breaking the snow surface, are the areas most likely to trigger a large and dangerous avalanche.  If travelling in the mid-elevation band, cautious route-finding and conservative decision-making will be essential.

    In lower elevations, below about 1,000', the snowpack is thin, and unfortunately, we are seeing more rain today.  There is, however, enough snow in the mid and upper elevations that it's possible debris could reach below 1,000' in funnelled terrain.  

    (1/28/2026)

    A snowpack snapshot from 2,100' in the Tincan trees.  The weak layer is becoming more difficult to affect, but as the slab grows, the consequences of an avalanche failing on this layer become more dangerous.

    Photo: Nathan Baird

  • Storm Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Very Likely
    Size
    1–2

    Expect natural avalanches in the form of fresh storm slabs and wind slabs above treeline. With storm intensity expected to peak mid-day, travel in avalanche terrain above ~2,500' is not recommended.  In the 1,500' to 2,000' elevation where the rain/ snow line is, triggering a storm slab avalanche 1-2' deep isn't out of the question.  Keep in mind that a smaller storm slab avalanche could be enough to trigger a much deeper and more dangerous persistent slab avalanche, discussed above. 

    Cornices: Cornices have been unusually small this winter in many of the usual places, but the warmer storms and active weather we've experienced in the latter half of January are definitely adding weight and instability to these backcountry bombs.  Be aware of corniced ridges, both travelling below and on top, as these tend to break much further back than expected. 

    (1/29/2026)

    Forecasted snow totals for the 24-hr period between Thursday at 3 am and Friday at 3 am.

    Photo: National Weather Service

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