The overall avalanche danger is LOW and triggering an avalanche is unlikely. The danger may increase to MODERATE this afternoon with the arrival of the storm. If we see more snow and wind than expected, you may be able to trigger developing soft slabs of wind blown snow in the upper elevations. Some of these may step into a persistent weak layer of old faceted snow on the polar aspects.
There is a widespread persistent weak layer (PWL) of faceted snow on northerly-facing slopes at mid- and upper elevations.
In isolated areas, you may find old and developing soft or hard slabs of wind blown snow that may crack and fail in older faceted snow in the high, northerly terrain.
The last reported avalanches were on December 7th with the last significant storm. Bo and Trent did find evidence of more old avalanche activity, including some larger wet avalanches during last weekend's warm-up.
Erik Fullmer photo yesterday, looking south toward the Cascade Ridgeline
Skies are mostly cloudy-trending overcast ahead of the next storm. As of 6AM, temperatures are dramatically warmer - even 20-25°F warmer than 24 hours ago and are in the low to mid-40s! Winds are moderate to strong out of the southwest.
The next storm - a weakening atmospheric river event - is on the doorstep. There is a fair bit of uncertainty on how far south the firehose points (will it make it as far south as the Provo mountains?) and a fair bit of uncertainty with how much snow and water arrives. But it's fair to say that any precipitation will fall as rain up to 8-8500' this afternoon and tonight with slowly dropping freezing levels through tomorrow. We may see 3-6" of heavy dense snow by Saturday afternoon at best. What I can promise is strong westerly winds through the weekend and off and on snowfall through next week. The avalanche conditions will be changing with the weather.
Forecasters Bo Torrey and Trent Meisenheimer took the new Ski-Doo (thanks Ski-Doo!) sleds up Snake Creek up to the Ant Knolls yesterday and found surprisingly supportable riding conditions and generally Low avalanche danger. Their report can be found HERE>
Erik Fullmer traveled around the north fork yesterday and his excellent report is HERE
This information does not apply to developed ski areas or highways where avalanche control is normally done. This forecast is from the U.S.D.A. Forest Service, which is solely responsible for its content. This forecast describes general avalanche conditions and local variations always occur.
