Avalanche forecast

Continental

Valdez Avalanche Center
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Avalanche danger

Alpine
3 · Considerable
Treeline
3 · Considerable
Below
3 · Considerable
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Out of date — this forecast expired 6 months ago. You’re viewing past conditions, not the current bulletin.

Highlights

The avalanche hazard remains Considerable today. Human triggered avalanches 1-3+ feet deep are likely in areas where wind has redistributed and stiffened new snow. Choosing conservative low angle terrain will help you avoid the problem and stay safe today.

Public avalanche forecasts are issued Wednesday-Sunday at 8 am. 

Avalanche problems

  • Wind Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Likely
    Size
    1–2

    Over the past 72 hours 16-30 inches of new snow has fallen across our forecast areas accompanied by moderate south winds. Overnight precipitation subsided and winds switched to the northeast. This will begin loading the opposite slopes that were loaded over the course of this last storm cycle. Expect wind slabs to be reactive on all aspects. Triggering an avalanche within the new wind drifted storm snow could step down to the persistent layer now buried 1.5-4ft deep. (more on this in problem 2) At lower elevations and calm areas where the wind is not as strong stay heads up for lingering storm slabs that have not bonded yet.

    Watch out for shooting cracks, and collapses (whumps). Take note of how deep the slab beneath you is with simple pole probing, and jump on small low consequence test slopes to test how reactive the new wind drifted snow is. 

  • Persistent Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Likely
    Size
    2–3

    New snow and wind loading are putting an additional strain on a layer of weak snow buried 1.5-4 ft deep at all elevations. This layer may not show signs of instability, especially at upper elevations where it is buried deeper. Expect this layer to become more reactive from the new snow load from the most recent storm cycle. This problem is most prevalent North of Thompson Pass, but has been found in all forecast areas except low elevation Maritime.

    Choosing conservative, low angle terrain is the best way to stay safe. This problem is not likely to go away quickly.

    (2/6/2026)

    Skier triggered avalanche on Girls Mountain/ 6000'/ E/NE. Fracture character connecting through the rocks along with a sympathetic avalanche on the lookers left of the photo indicate a persistent grain at the interface.

  • Deep Persistent Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Unlikely
    Size
    2–3

    A deeply buried weak layer near the ground remains a concern, especially in steep, rocky terrain and areas with a thinner snowpack. Triggering this layer is unlikely for most travelers right now, but if it does fail the result would be large, destructive avalanches with severe consequences.

    This problem is most likely to show itself where the snowpack is shallow or variable around rock outcrops, scoured features, convex rollovers, and ridge tops. The likelihood may increase over time with additional loading from new snow and wind, or with warming from the sun in the future.

    Travel advice: Avoid committing to big, consequential terrain where a deep release would be unsurvivable. Choose routes that minimize time spent under overhead start zones and avoid thin, rocky trigger points.

    (1/23/2026)

    Large connected natural hard slab avalanche associated with our deep persistent weak layer. Mt Dimond north face

    Photo: Gareth Brown

Avalanche Discussion

Avalanche activity in the last 72 hours:  Photos at the bottom of the page show avalanches from last week that failed on our persistent weak layer. These avalanches are older than 72 hours, but the layer that these avalanches failed on is still very much a concern. Detailed acounts of these avalanches can be found in the observations/avalanche tab.

Forecast Discussion

As snowfall tapers off and winds continue, we have switched the storm slab problem to wind slab. Expect the new snow to be most sensitive in areas where the wind has drifted and stiffened the snow surface. Storm slabs may still be lingering and reactive in areas that are calm as well.

While you are most likely to encounter instability related to the new snow today, the persistent slab is very concerning today and going forward.  

A conservative mindset is imperative for dealing with a complex and dangerous snowpack like the one we are currently experiencing. It can be difficult to maintain this level of caution, but is important when dealing with well established persistent instabilities. The complexity of the current avalanche problems make it extremely difficult for even high end users to mitigate the dangers in the field. Until there is significant data that points towards these persistent instabilities being a non factor, stay conservative and look for the joys in mellow, simple terrain.

For more information regarding our snowpack, see our Season summary, Observations, and avalanche activity sections.   

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