Avalanche forecast

Selkirk Mountains

Idaho Panhandle Avalanche Center
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Avalanche danger

Mon
Alpine
2 · Moderate
Treeline
2 · Moderate
Below
1 · Low
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Out of date — this forecast expired 6 months ago. You’re viewing past conditions, not the current bulletin.

Highlights

Light rain at lower elevations and snow higher up is not expected to change our lower likelihood-high consequence concern of triggering an avalanche in weak snow layers several feet deep. Continue to make thoughtful and calculated terrain evaluations to avoid recreating where the snowpack is shallower and easier to impact weaknesses below like near rocky outcrops or backsides of steep rollovers. Small, wind-drifted hazards may emerge on slopes above the snow line where a couple inches of new snow could stack up to deeper drifts below ridgelines, in gullies, and appear smooth and rounded.

Avalanche problems

  • Persistent Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Possible
    Size
    2–2.5

    A 2 to 3-foot-thick cohesive slab overlies two buried surface hoar layers. One got buried at the end of January (1/28) and the other in mid-February around Valentine’s Day (2/14). The slab above has stiffened and settled due to wind, warmer temperatures, and natural settlement. As the slab has strengthened, the likelihood of human-triggered avalanches has decreased, and natural avalanches have become unlikely. Although the snowpack is trending in the right direction, the potential consequences remain significant if one of these persistent weak layers is woken up and an avalanche occurs. 

    Snowpack feedback and signs of instability in the form of audible collapses, shooting cracks, or worrisome test results have diminished, and there will likely be little to no warning before you trigger a large avalanche. Shaded, more wind-protected slopes that favor the northern half of the compass are the more likely places where looming persistent weak layers will be more intact. Areas with a thinner or softer overlying slab may act as trigger point and the slide could expand to where the slab is deeper. Navigate around slab margins, rocky slopes, and steep convex rolls where snow depths are likely shallower if traveling through avalanche terrain.

    Annotated photo showing the depths of our primary weak layers of concern - two surface hoar layers  (4 to 6 mm in size). They now sit below a mostly pencil hard slab around the slope-specific tree line. Selkirk Mountains. March 5, 2026.

    Photo: Chris Bilbrey

Avalanche Discussion

Avalanche conditions remain status quo although the weather is trying to inflict small changes. In the near term, the weather will be more of a nuisance. Mixed precipitation and strong winds will primarily add more variability to surface conditions. Over the long haul, the change needed to move the avalanche needle looks to arrive midweek, but let’s not lose focus on the now.

Light rain at lower elevations, specifically sub-5,000 feet, will fall onto a snowpack that is quickly transitioning to a spring snowpack and can likely handle the water. This should help stave off concerning wet snow hazards, but rollerballs and pinwheels are clues the rain is wetting deeper into drier snow. If you travel into terrain with wet, punchy snow, retreat to shadier slopes or ones higher in elevation, and keep slope angles low.

Above the snow line, you could experience snow or a wintry mix, and strong to extreme winds may help build shallow slabs or simply press the snow surface into a stiffer surface layer. Slab formation is expected to be minimal due to how wet and/ or crusted the old snow surface got, and higher snow densities from Sunday’s snowfall. If winds are more consistently stronger than not, you may find drifting or wind-loaded terrain features farther away from ridgelines and in larger openings in the trees. 

Besides changes to surface conditions and the introduction of small, isolated hazards the elephant in the room is the lessening, but lingering danger of our Persistent Slab avalanche problem. Talking and describing this problem feels like groundhog day, but we are not ready to let this concern ride off into the sunset. We are still within earshot of a multi-week period with elevated instability and avalanche activity that occurred not only in our forecast zones but regionwide and to some degree across the Western US.

Managing this lingering hazard comes with a bit of uncertainty now that free input from the snowpack is mostly gone and we don’t have reassurance of natural activity to guide us away from certain aspects and types of slopes. A trend we are observing is that lingering failures in tests and a concerning hard-over-soft structure is still being found on slopes that face west through north to east. And, in wind-sheltered areas that are nearby the slope-specific tree line. This is where both buried surface hoar layers were larger and more widespread before being buried. In more alpine terrain, the overlying slab is much stiffer and the same persistent weak grains show more evidence of rounding.

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