Avalanche forecast

Northern New Mexico

Taos Avalanche Center
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Avalanche danger

Sun
Alpine
2 · Moderate
Treeline
2 · Moderate
Below
1 · Low
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Highlights

As we push further away from the last loading event it's becoming more difficult to trigger a persistent slab avalanche.  However, the consequences remain high, as these avalanches would be large, breaking on or near the ground and able to propagate widely across the slope. Avoid likely trigger points on the margins of the slab, rock outcroppings, and steep convex rolls.  Lower angled wind-sheltered terrain will provide safer riding options.

Avalanche problems

  • Persistent Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Possible
    Size
    2

    Dense slabs rest on top of weak faceted snow near the ground on northerly aspects.  As we push further away from the last loading event, triggering an avalanche has become more difficult, but not impossible.  Avoid areas where you're more likely to impact and collapse weak layers.  This will be on the margins of the slab, near rock outcrops and steep rollovers. Immediate feedback of unstable snow like audible collapses and shooting cracks most likely will not be present and give you a false sense of security.  You can avoid this problem by staying off of northerly aspects, or taking the time to dig a pit to assess if the slope you plan to play on harbors this strong over weak snowpack structure. Avalanches may break on or near the ground and will be large enough to injure or bury you and could be unsurvivable.  

    Snowpit dug on the margins of the slab in a shallow snowpack.  It's places where the overall snowpack is thinner that you'll be more likely to impact weak layers near the ground. 

Avalanche Discussion

Yesterday, felt more like April than it did January with temperatures climbing into the 30's under sunny skies.  Below treeline solar aspects felt the heat, and pinwheels and rollerballs were popping up on slopes that had the sun directly on them.  At higher elevations, moderate to strong winds over the last several days have done a lot of stripping and eroding slopes as well as stiffening the surface.  We were not finding these shallow slabs to be reactive in travels, but pay attention to a smooth rounded surface or obvious wind-drifted pillow, that will most likely be found on the leeward sides of ridgelines.  These shallow wind slabs would be small but could knock you off your feet and take you for a ride down the slope. 

In recent travels and snowpits, facets/depth hoar on the ground continues to remain reactive with hard force in extended column tests. Near and above treeline on northerly aspects is where you will find this snowpack structure of strong over weak.  Recent winds have stripped and eroded some of this north-facing terrain and overall snowpack depths can vary greatly across a slope.  Over the last week, the snowpack has been settling quickly and below treeline we've dropped the avalanche danger to low.  It's been since January 1st that we've had an avalanche in the backcountry, and even big triggers like explosives have not been producing avalanches in the last couple of days. 

The best skiing and riding can be found on wind-sheltered slopes where "recycled" powder continues to provide good turns.

Regions covered