Avalanche forecast

Seeley Lake

West Central Montana Avalanche Center
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Avalanche danger

Wed
Alpine
2 · Moderate
Treeline
1 · Low
Below
1 · Low
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Highlights

New snow will increase the avalanche danger throughout the day.  Slabs of drifted snow may become reactive to the weight of a rider or machine. The northern reach of the forecast area will receive the most snow and wind loading.  Avalanche danger will remain low for Lolo and the central and southern Bitterroot as less snow and wind will keep slabs smaller. Stick to wind-scoured areas or terrain sheltered from the wind if you see blowing snow and more than 6 inches of new snow stack up.

Avalanche problems

  • Wind Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Possible
    Size
    1–2

     With fresh snow in the forecast, expect danger to rise as the small storm materializes. New wind slabs will form over hard, consolidated, and crusty snow surfaces in most places. The Rattlesnake and Seeley-Swan zones will receive the most snow and wind loading today. The slab will be smaller for Lolo and the central and southern Bitterroot. Winds out of the west today are expected to be light with moderate gusts. 

    Identify where wind slabs may exist by looking for wind-scoured ridges, new cornice development, pillows of wind drifted snow, and other wind-sculpted features on the snow surface. Try to figure out the local direction of the wind from these clues and identify areas where loading has occurred. Winds slabs are often lens-shaped and hollow sounding. Shooting cracks, whumping, and blocking indicate a nearby wind slab problem. Avoid them by sticking to protected or wind-scoured areas. 

Avalanche Discussion

The freeze-thaw cycles have continued since Saturday. Our SNOTELs are showing steady settlement with one to two inches in the past 24 hours. Yesterday's temperatures reached the upper 30s to low 40s °F for elevations below 7,000 feet and low to mid-30s °F for upper elevations. Various inversion layers kept lower elevations cooler. We've had solid nightly refreezes in the mid-20s °F.

Our primary concern is new snow and how it will interact with our old crusty snowpack. Cold nightly temperatures have allowed surface hoar to grow. The exact extent to which it lingers is unknown, but it has been observed recently on easterly aspects-where warm temperatures and wind haven't had the chance to break it down. 

If you find more than 6 inches of new snow under your feet or machine, watch for shooting cracks in recently wind drifted snow. Manage your sluff in wind-sheltered terrain since it will slide easily on the newly buried crust.

Variabilities currently exist for different aspects and elevations across the forecasts area. How it will receive a load of new snow this week will likely vary as well. Keep it simple, look for the five red flags of avalanche danger, and adjust your travel plans to avoid areas of concern.

Ski and ride safe.

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