Avalanche forecast

West Slopes South

Northwest Avalanche Center
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Avalanche danger

Wed
Alpine
3 · Considerable
Treeline
3 · Considerable
Below
2 · Moderate
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Out of date — this forecast expired 2 years ago. You’re viewing past conditions, not the current bulletin.

Highlights

Don’t let the deep fluffy snow blind you. Recent avalanches and a weak snowpack point towards dangerous conditions. Enjoy the new snow by sticking to lower angled or treed terrain.

Avalanche problems

  • Storm Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Possible
    Size
    1–2

    It’s deep out there! The storm ended cold leaving a mostly right-side-up and fluffy snowpack. However, temperature changes early in the storm and periods of heavier snowfall left a few subtle inter-storm weaklayers. These produced small slabs over the past few days. 

    You’re most likely to trigger a storm slab avalanche in wind affected snow, on very steep slopes, or near a convex rollover. Slabs should be very soft and generally small, but could step down to older weak layers. 

    Even if there is “no slab,” you may trigger dry loose slides that run far and fast, even in the trees.

    (2/1/2025)

    An intentionally triggered small storm slab. 3-12" deep, and 20 feet wide. SS-ASc-D1-R2-S, NE, 6200ft

    Photo: Dallas Glass

  • Persistent Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Possible
    Size
    2

    This isn’t a problem to “figure out” or “gain confidence” in. Even if it “feels” stable, the snowpack doesn’t care. There’s plenty of data pointing toward the same thing. Recent avalanches, numerous snowpack tests, and well documnented weak layers are clear signs of a persistent slab issue. Tracks on a slope don’t mean it’s safe. 

    The only option with this tricky beast is avoidance. Fortunately, it seems to only be on the W-N-E side of the dial. Avoid steep open slopes on these more shaded aspects.

Avalanche Discussion

The storm is tapering and the likelihood of avalanches dropping, but dangerous conditions remain along with the need to keep your travel dialed back and conservative. With the current setup and cold weather,  we might be stuck in this rut for several days. 

A few inches of fluffy snow and maybe some sunshine should be on tap for Tuesday. The chilly temperatures should limit the sun's effect on the snow. Even still, you may see a small natural loose slide or some snow shedding out of the trees. 

Storm totals around the zone range from 2-3.5 ft! All this new snow caps two persistent weak layers. The January Drought Layer (JDL) is highly variable but could include facets, surface hoar, and thin crusts. Facets around the thicker 1/10 crust sit just below. Warm sunny weather generally destroyed these weak layers on southerly aspects. So far, we haven’t heard of any issues on sunnier slopes. The only way to look at these old snow layers is to dig. Unfortunately, snow profiles and snowpack tests can only highlight weak layers, they can’t prove stability. 

We’ve seen persistent slab avalanches at White Pass, Mt Rainier, and Mt Adams. So far, we haven’t heard of any notable observations on these layers from the Crystal area. That could change. As we enter this drier period, we’ll have to keep an eye on the snowpack and monitor these persistent weak layers. 

Regions covered