Avalanche forecast

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Northwest Avalanche Center
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Avalanche danger

Mon
Alpine
4 · High
Treeline
4 · High
Below
4 · High
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Highlights

A warm and potent storm will bring very dangerous conditions by Sunday. We expect very large slab avalanches to occur naturally, and some could run from upper elevations to valley bottoms. This is a good day to stay out of the backcountry, or at the least avoid avalanche terrain.

Avalanche problems

  • Storm Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Very Likely
    Size
    1.5–2.5

    Avoid avalanche terrain, and don't linger in runouts where avalanches could come from above. If you experience whumpfing collapses or see avalanches break into deeper layers, you will be dealing with unmanageable persistent slab conditions. See more below.

    New snow accumulation could exceed 2 feet. The terrain above 5,5000ft should receive mostly snow, but even there, it will be warm and heavy. Moderate to strong southwest winds will make avalanches even more likely on the leeward sides of ridges.

    (2/1/2025) Small sled triggered storm slab. Photo: Will Govus

  • Persistent Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Likely
    Size
    2.5–3

    Put a large buffer between where you travel and all slopes over 35 degrees.  Expect that avalanches could run well into runouts and valley bottoms. Heed the warning of any whumpfs or cracks that break into deeper weak layers

    It won't take much to awaken the avalanche dragons in our weak snowpack. The new snow will stress weak layers throughout the zone. We expect avalanches will run naturally on older January weak layers.

    (3/2/2024)

    An example of a very large avalanche on Kangaroo Ridge from last season.

    Pk 8183, WNW, 7,600ft

    Photo: Willie Webster

  • Loose Wet

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Likely
    Size
    1–2

    Wet avalanches will be the most common type to encounter at low elevations. While many will be smaller, some could be large and dangerous. Use extra caution if you see avalanches gouging deep into the snowpack or wet slabs breaking on deeper weak layers.

    (2/2/2024)

    Examples of wet avalanches in the Cutthroat paths on Highway 20 from last season.

    Photo: Will Govus

Avalanche Discussion

Expect a massive spike in avalanche danger Saturday night through Sunday. 

Overall, the snowpack in the zone is weak, faceted, and variable. Facets from the January Drought Layer (JDL) are the main concern, about 1.5-2.5 feet below the surface. They were responsible for the large collapses and sudden test results earlier this week with only warming temperatures. As the snowfall adds up, we expect unstable conditions to return.

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