Avalanche forecast

Selkirk Mountains

Idaho Panhandle Avalanche Center
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Avalanche danger

Mon
Alpine
3 · Considerable
Treeline
3 · Considerable
Below
2 · Moderate
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Out of date — this forecast expired 9 months ago. You’re viewing past conditions, not the current bulletin.

Highlights

Snowfall over the last four days has stacked slabs of snow around a foot thick on top of weaker snow layers. Aided by warming temperatures, denser storm snow now sits above softer snow forming an upside-down slab, and this makes it easier to trigger a dangerous avalanche. Avalanches triggered in the new snow have the potential to break deeper in weaker, faceted snow around one of several crust and warrant conservative terrain choices. Adjust your travels to low-angled terrain with a wider buffer below steeper hazards if you encounter a punchy snow surface, observe cracking or audible collapses, or see recent avalanches.

Avalanche problems

  • Persistent Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Possible
    Size
    2

    Cohesive slabs of snow, faceted crust, and/ or buried surface hoar create a complex array of upper snowpack layers - all of which sit above a hard, planar lower snowpack interface. The weight of the new snow may be reaching the point where buried weak layers start to wake up. As slab depths continue to increase or the upper snowpack gets wetted by rain, sensitivity to failure from a rider or machine is expected to increase.

    Avalanches will likely be larger and more difficult to escape around 6,000 feet and above where buried weak layers and early-season snow span the compass landscape, and overlying slab volume is greater. Be mindful of where you are in the terrain and what’s above you. While prior discontinuity of snow cover has limited potential avalanche size and remotely impacting weaker snow layers, snow cover may be crossing that threshold where affecting a hard over soft snowpack may be easier from farther away.

  • Storm Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Likely
    Size
    1–2

    Snow totals since December 4 range 8 to 13 inches in the Selkirk and West Cabinet Mountains. Temperatures have warmed over the same timeframe and surface slabs are likely more inverted than just a day or two ago. Increasing wind speeds over the next 24 to 48 hours will enhance drifting of recent snowfall into thicker, more dangerous slabs on leeward-facing slopes. Areas below ridges and terrain features that are cross-loaded should be avoided. These areas of concern will also look smooth and rounded.

    Lower in elevation where overall snow depths are shallower - below about 5,500 feet - avalanche size may be smaller and more isolated, but slab sensitivity may not drop off all that much. Continually assess conditions as you move through the terrain and up in elevation, and use the combination of small test slopes and snowpack tests to evaluate instability below you before committing to steeper or more open terrain.

Avalanche Discussion

There’s a saying in the avalanche business…”your avalanche forecast is only as good as your weather forecast”. As we enter into a period of challenging weather forecasting, it’ll be important to think one step ahead and be willing to make adjustments around your terrain selections. With somewhat limited field observations and number of eye popping test results, there is a fair bit of uncertainty around how much snow volume or water load is going to kick buried weak snow layers into a more reactive state.

One thing we do know is that a worrisome structure exists in the upper snowpack - primarily focused to mid and upper elevations. Multiple faceted mid-storm crust and a layer of larger facets above the wetted now refrozen early-season snowpack highlight the main concerns. Throw in buried surface hoar on north through east-facing slopes - so far discovered in the Silver Valley and West Cabinet Mountains - and we have a multitude of layers to wreck havoc on backcountry recreation.

Although observations have yet to report propagating results in Extended Column Tests, snow safety teams have had better luck producing avalanches with explosives. These results, while within an operational area, are fairly representative of the potential behavior of a wild snowpack, and a forward context of the lurking danger below. Despite the lack of propagating results, Compression Tests have repeatedly failed with moderate force in any one of these buried layers of concern. Now stack thick dense and/ or an inverted slab on top and the added weight of a rider or machine may be what’s needed to nudge the snowpack over the edge.

If warmer air arrives sooner than expected and rain starts wetting the snow surface higher up, wet snow hazards will likely emerge quickly. Plenty of cold, dry snow sits in the top one to two feet below the surface and rain wetting these layers will help to weaken individual bonds and promote natural sluffing in steeper terrain.

Despite the much-needed recent snowfall, coverage remains thin, particularly at lower elevations and on southerly-facing slopes. Early-season hazards—rocks, stumps, downed trees—are lurking just beneath the surface. Invisible enough to catch you off guard, shallow enough to abruptly end your day if you’re skiing or riding fast, or lead to a bad outcome if you get knocked off your feet in a slide.

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