Avalanche forecast

San Francisco Peaks / Kachina Peaks Wilderness

Kachina Peaks Avalanche Center
View on map

Avalanche danger

Mon
Alpine
2 · Moderate
Treeline
1 · Low
Below
1 · Low
Open full map
Out of date — this forecast expired 3 years ago. You’re viewing past conditions, not the current bulletin.

Highlights

Human triggered avalanches will be possible today, with the greatest hazard occurring above treeline on ridgelines and micro terrain features. Expect the most dangerous avalanche conditions on North through East aspects in steep terrain such as starting zones, cornices, cross-loaded ridgelines, and on the leeward side of terrain features.

Travelers should assess carefully before heading into avalanche terrain, and be especially aware of new softer wind slabs that may have started forming early this morning.  Watch for cracking, shearing and any signs of instability.  

Avalanche problems

  • Wind Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Possible
    Size
    1–2

    After yesterday's reprieve, high winds started to return to the San Francisco Peaks early this morning.  Southwest winds in the 18-28 mph range, with gusts as high as 40 mph, are expected for today at upper elevations.  Winds at lower elevations will be slightly lower.  After Friday's strong gusts and yesterday's melt/freeze cycle there is less snow available for transport, but still plenty of snow is on the ground to build new wind slabs.  Use caution in steep, complex upper elevation terrain and look for the formation of fresh wind deposited snow on previously loaded areas.

    Be particularly cautious on south facing slopes, and as temperatures rise above freezing at lower elevation bands, thus weakening firm wind slabs that have been previously unreactive.

Avalanche Discussion

High winds will once again return to the San Francisco Peaks this morning.  These winds are expected to increase in velocity throughout today and continue into next week.  

Little reactivity has been found since Wednesday's storm, but wind slabs may still release with the weight of a single skier or rider, particularly as temperatures increase today.  Of particular note were East and Southeast facing slabs with layers of graupel near the old snow/new snow interface.  Caution should be used anywhere wind features may have formed with the focus on avoiding such features.  

The non-wind-affected snowpack near and below treeline is showing good stability.  For more detail check out the snow pits below. Southerly aspects will be affected by the warm temperatures and direct sun today.  This will result in melt-freeze conditions forming in the new snow, but it will likely not be warm enough for wet-loose conditions to be a possible problem.  

Finally, above treeline rime-ice, windboard and scoured slopes are present.  Anyone venturing into this elevational gradient should be prepared for firm conditions and may want to consider the use of crampons and/or ice axes.

Regions covered