Snowfall amounts for Thursday are uncertain. HIGH danger will likely result if you find more than 30 cm of accumulated snow. It will be a good time to remain conservative with route selection and avoid avalanche terrain if signs point to HIGH danger.
Confidence
Moderate - Timing, track, or intensity of incoming weather system is uncertain
Weather Forecast
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Cloudy with light snowfall, accumulation 5 to 15 cm, strong southwest winds, freezing level below valley bottom.THURSDAY: Cloudy with light snowfall, accumulation 5 to 15 cm, strong southwest winds, alpine temperature -3 C, freezing level rising to 1300 m.FRIDAY: Cloudy with light snowfall, accumulation 5 to 10 cm, moderate to strong southwest winds, alpine temperature -1 C, freezing level 1500 m.SATURDAY: Mix of sun and cloud, light southwest winds, alpine temperature -4 C, freezing level 1000 m.
Avalanche Summary
Skiers were capable of triggering small (size 1) wind slabs on Wednesday. The likelihood of triggering avalanches will increase with the incoming storm.
Snowpack Summary
Forecasted amounts are variable for Thursday, but expect new storm slabs to form with the new snow falling with strong southwest winds. In sheltered areas, new snow will add to the current 20 cm of snow that covers a weak layer of feathery surface hoar crystals, which was buried on Boxing Day.A persistent weak layer that formed in early December may be found 80 to 120 cm deep. This layer mostly consists of sugary faceted snow with some isolated areas also containing feathery surface hoar crystals. While professionals are still tracking this layer, it has not been reactive for some time now, except for the east side of the region near Corbin.Near the bottom of the snowpack lies a mix of crusts and facets that formed in late October/early November. Triggering an avalanche at the base of the snowpack is unlikely at this time, although the most likely place to do so would be from a steep rocky start zone in an area where the snowpack was shallow.
Problems
Storm Slabs
Storm Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer (a slab) of new snow that breaks within new snow or on the old snow surface. Storm-slabs typically last between a few hours and few days (following snowfall). Storm-slabs that form over a persistent weak layer (surface hoar, depth hoar, or near-surface facets) may be termed Persistent Slabs or may develop into Persistent Slabs.