Avalanche Forecast

It’s not often that we go from low to high avalanche danger in 24 hours, but when we do it should draw your attention. A significant winter storm will ramp up Monday night and bring moderate to occasionally heavy snow through the day on Tuesday, resulting in sustained or even increased avalanche danger throughout the day. Mt. Hood areas are likely to pick up 1-2 ft of snow in this event and the snow may fall on small grains of surface hoar on northerly slopes.

Winds were transporting snow all day Monday above treeline.

The storm comes on the heels of sunny days on Sunday and Monday with temperatures getting above freezing up to 6500 ft on Monday afternoon before clouds rolled in late in the day. The mild weather has created sun crusts on all sun-affected aspects and elevations. North-facing terrain is well settled and consolidating somewhat.

March 10, 2019

February started stormy and cold with very active avalanche conditions on persistent weak layers. The month finished with continued cold temperatures but drier weather allowed avalanche activity to taper off. Persistent weak layers that were buried early in the month (Feb 8th) are now unreactive, though you can still find the grains.

Aside from the series of storms in early to mid-February, most regions have measured relatively light snow accumulation in the past 3 weeks. Snow has stayed soft especially on shaded slopes and faceting and surface hoar have been plentiful. While there has been plenty of sunshine since mid-February, very cold temperatures have kept melt-freeze crust to a minimum on sunny slopes.

A natural loose wet avalanche (D1.5) on a southeast aspect of Lichtenberg Mtn at 5,400ft. 3/10/2019. Photo: Josh Hirshberg

Recent Avalanches

Our attention shifted to the upper snowpack. Recent avalanche problems have largely focussed on wind transported snow and weak snow surfaces on both dry, shaded slopes and sun-exposed aspects. In some locations, a weak layer of surface hoar and facets was buried on March 6th. We’ll keep an eye on this interface as we move into the future.

A skier-triggered storm slab avalanche (D1.5) on Shuksan Arm, north aspect, 5200ft. 03/09/19 Adam U Photo. 

Moving Forward

As we move further into March, there are two points to consider:

• The strength of the March sun: As the sun creeps higher into the sky and the days grow longer, the sun can have a greater impact on the snow surface. When the sun comes out, expect things to change quickly. You may see avalanches conditions change with natural loose avalanches originating from sunny slopes, surface snow becoming thick and heavy, and slabs taking on a moist to wet snow character.

• Weak surfaces: facets and surface hoar have blanketed snow surfaces in many zones. Any significant snowfall will bury well-developed and widespread persistent weak layers. Recently, most storms have not delivered enough precipitation to cause a problem.