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Avalanche Forecast

Archived

Feb 7th, 2013–Feb 8th, 2013

Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.

Regions

Northwest Inland.

Confidence

Fair - Due to limited field observations

Weather Forecast

Friday: Expect overcast conditions with a chance of isolated flurries, moderate westerly winds and alpine temperatures reaching -5.Saturday & Sunday: A ridge will build giving mostly clear skies, light west/southwest winds and alpine temperatures reaching -2 in the afternoons.

Avalanche Summary

A natural cycle has passed with windslab avalanches at treeline and in the alpine up to size 2.5 and loose wet sluffing at lower elevations. Isolated rider controlled avalanches up to size 1.0 in wind loaded areas have also been reported.

Snowpack Summary

Dribs and drabs of light precipitation is tapering off. Consistent southwesterly winds have maintained snow transport, and many areas show layers of windslab over windslab. Some places have seen swirling winds creating cross and reverse loading on isolated slopes. The deepest storm interface (from the very beginning of this storm cycle) includes a huge variety of old surfaces from facets to crusts and isolated pockets of surface hoar (sheltered treeline and below treeline). There is very limited information with regards to this interface, with the only results suggesting reactivity in sheltered, shady treeline and below treeline slopes (likely associated with the preserved surface hoar pockets). I would stress the importance of digging down to find and test weak layers. A cautious and curious approach is critical.A strong mid-pack currently overlies a weak base layer of facets/depth hoar. Triggering of this basal weakness may still be possible from thin spots, rocky outcrops or under the weight of larger triggers such as cornice fall.

Problems

Wind Slabs

Wind Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer of snow (a slab) formed by the wind. Wind typically transports snow from the upwind sides of terrain features and deposits snow on the downwind side. Wind slabs are often smooth and rounded and sometimes sound hollow, and can range from soft to hard. Wind slabs that form over a persistent weak layer (surface hoar, depth hoar, or near-surface facets) may be termed Persistent Slabs or may develop into Persistent Slabs.

Persistent Slabs

Persistent Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer of snow (a slab) in the middle to upper snowpack, when the bond to an underlying persistent weak layer breaks. Persistent layers include: surface hoar, depth hoar, near-surface facets, or faceted snow. Persistent weak layers can continue to produce avalanches for days, weeks or even months, making them especially dangerous and tricky. As additional snow and wind events build a thicker slab on top of the persistent weak layer, this avalanche problem may develop into a Deep Persistent Slab.