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Avalanche Forecast

Archived

Dec 12th, 2012–Dec 13th, 2012

Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.
Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.
Alpine
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.

Regions

Cariboos.

Confidence

Fair - Due to limited field observations

Weather Forecast

A weak system will cross the region during Thursday and bring light precipitations and moderate to strong winds from the South West. Temperatures will stay cool for the entire period. Friday should see some sunny periods with lighter winds from the North West. Later Saturday, another upper trough is expected to spread moderate snow accumulations over the region with moderate winds from the South.

Avalanche Summary

Several natural slab avalanches up to size 2 have been reported on various aspects in the storm snow. A few skier triggered loose dry avalanches have also been reported on steep terrain.

Snowpack Summary

30 cm of fresh snow has been transported by West and South West winds in the alpine and treeline  creating the windslab problem on lee slopes. It has been reported that these windslabs are reactive under the weight of a skier. In sheltered areas, this new snow could also be burrying older and deeper windslabs in the alpine. Sluffing is still an issue on steep features protected from the wind below treeline. Below treeline, also watch for early season obstacle, such as stumps and creeks. The deep persistent instabilities (surface hoar and early November crust) located in the middle and near the bottom of the snowpack are still a concern in this region, however, we haven't had report of their sensitivity or reactiveness. Digging down and making your own observations will be critical to safe slope selection. Any observations from the field are welcome at [email protected].

Problems

Wind Slabs

Wind Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer of snow (a slab) formed by the wind. Wind typically transports snow from the upwind sides of terrain features and deposits snow on the downwind side. Wind slabs are often smooth and rounded and sometimes sound hollow, and can range from soft to hard. Wind slabs that form over a persistent weak layer (surface hoar, depth hoar, or near-surface facets) may be termed Persistent Slabs or may develop into Persistent Slabs.

Deep Persistent Slabs

Deep Persistent Slab avalanches are the release of a thick cohesive layer of hard snow (a slab), when the bond breaks between the slab and an underlying persistent weak layer deep in the snowpack. The most common persistent weak layers involved in deep, persistent slabs are depth hoar or facets surrounding a deeply buried crust. Deep Persistent Slabs are typically hard to trigger, are very destructive and dangerous due to the large mass of snow involved, and can persist for months once developed. They are often triggered from areas where the snow is shallow and weak, and are particularly difficult to forecast for and manage.