Our neighbors are experiencing a large cycle right now. We feel as though we're just a bit behind them for timing. It won't take much for the scales to tip and a natural cycle to start. The waiting game begins...
Weather Forecast
More flurries tonight and tomorrow. Given the pattern, we'll probably get 5cm out them. Winds will ne from the west and range from 25-40km/hr.
Avalanche Summary
-A natural sz2 cornice trigger on Mt. Buller. -A few old (36hr), mid storm sz 1 to 1.5 avalanches. Looked as though loose dry avalanches were the trigger.
Snowpack Summary
The new snow load from the last few days is very apparent. In valley bottom there was widespread whumphing and settling. Some would radiate out for 30-40m and shaking small trees as they went. As one moves up in elevation, the storm snow decreases. Treeline hasn't seen a lot of change and the snowpack appears to have handled the new load OK. No cracking or whumphing, which was a surprise. The alpine has seen a lot of wind and there are widespread slabs on N-E aspects. Forecasters weren't brave enough to venture too close to start zones, but its thought they are stiff enough and touchy enough to be a problem.
Problems
Wind Slabs
Wind Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer of snow (a slab) formed by the wind. Wind typically transports snow from the upwind sides of terrain features and deposits snow on the downwind side. Wind slabs are often smooth and rounded and sometimes sound hollow, and can range from soft to hard. Wind slabs that form over a persistent weak layer (surface hoar, depth hoar, or near-surface facets) may be termed Persistent Slabs or may develop into Persistent Slabs.
Persistent Slabs
Persistent Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer of snow (a slab) in the middle to upper snowpack, when the bond to an underlying persistent weak layer breaks. Persistent layers include: surface hoar, depth hoar, near-surface facets, or faceted snow. Persistent weak layers can continue to produce avalanches for days, weeks or even months, making them especially dangerous and tricky. As additional snow and wind events build a thicker slab on top of the persistent weak layer, this avalanche problem may develop into a Deep Persistent Slab.