Avalanche forecast

South Coast

Jan 9, 2018Avalanche Canada
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Archived · expired 9 years ago

Avalanche danger

Wed
Thu
Alpine
3 · Considerable
Treeline
3 · Considerable
Below
2 · Moderate
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Highlights

25 to 30 cm of warm snow is expected Monday night. Human triggered avalanches are likely Tuesday, especially in steep wind-loaded terrain above treeline. Choose conservative lines and watch for clues of instability.

Avalanche problems

  • Storm Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Likely
    Size
    1–2
    Another 25 to 30 cm of warm snow Monday night is expected to add to the 20 to 40 cm of rain soaked storm snow that has fallen over the last few days.  This snow may react as a storm slab in steep terrain or as a wind slab in wind exposed features.

  • Loose Wet

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Possible - Likely
    Size
    1–2
    Loose wet avalanches may still be problematic Tuesday morning in steep terrain where precipitation has fallen as rain.

Confidence

Moderate - Timing, track, or intensity of incoming weather system is uncertain

Weather Forecast

Continued precipitation is expected through Monday night before a brief lull in the action Tuesday and Wednesday. Thursday's system looks pretty juicy, stay tuned for details. MONDAY NIGHT: Overcast, freezing level around 1200 m, snowline around 1000 m, moderate southwest wind, 25 to 30 cm of snow.TUESDAY: Overcast, freezing level around 1000 m lowering through the day, moderate west wind, no snow expected.WEDNESDAY: Overcast, freezing level around 800 m, light scattered wind, up to 5 cm of snow possible. Up to 30 cm possible Wednesday night.THURSDAY: Overcast, freezing level may rise as high as 1200 m, strong west wind, 15 to 30 cm of snow possible.

Avalanche Summary

On Monday storm slabs were sensitive to skier triggering to size 1.0 on northwest through southeast facing features with crowns 10 to 15 cm in depth.

Snowpack Summary

As of Monday afternoon, 20 to 40 cm of rain soaked snow had fallen on the January 7th crust. Looking down into the snowpack there are a few prominent melt-freeze crusts that were buried mid-December and are now 50 to 100 cm below the surface. After heavy rain last Friday penetrated most of the snowpack, these crust layers have been reported to be bonding to the snow above and below. The rain last week has reduced the snowpack depth at 1000 m to about 140 cm and many early season hazards are still present.

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