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Avalanche Forecast

Archived

Jan 2nd, 2018–Jan 3rd, 2018

Alpine
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.
Alpine
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.
Alpine
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.

Regions

Cariboos.

Watch for warming in alpine areas.

Confidence

Moderate - Timing or intensity of solar radiation is uncertain

Weather Forecast

Wednesday: Cold air in the valleys, warmer air up high. An above freezinf level is expected from 2000-2500m. Some valley cloud is possible, clear at upper elevations. Light variable winds.Thursday: Pretty much a repeat of Wednesday, with more cloud developing in the afternoon and some moderate southwesterly winds.Friday: Cloudy with flurries. Inversions conditions may persist in some parts above 1800m. Moderate southwesterly winds.

Avalanche Summary

Recent reports are of a few wind slab avalanches to size 1.5 and loose dry avalanches running in steep terrain. The character of avalanches is expected to change over the next few days, with slab avalanches becoming more likely as the upper snowpack starts to settle with warm temperatures. Please submit your observations to the Mountain Information Network (MIN).

Snowpack Summary

15-30cm of low density new snow has buried a recently formed layer of feathery surface hoar and/or sugary facets. A layer buried mid-December that consists of surface hoar, sun crust and/or sugary facets is now down approximately 30-50cm. This layer is most prevalent in sheltered locations at treeline and below. Until recently, the snow above both of these weak layers has been soft and unconsolidated. Forecast warmer temperatures are expected to make the upper snow more dense, which could increase the likelihood of triggering on these layers. A crust which was formed by rain in late November is another major feature in the snowpack and is down approximately 70-100cm at treeline elevations.

Problems

Loose Dry

Loose Dry avalanches are the release of dry unconsolidated snow and typically occur within layers of soft snow near the surface of the snowpack. These avalanches start at a point and entrain snow as they move downhill, forming a fan-shaped avalanche. Other names for loose-dry avalanches include point-release avalanches or sluffs.

Wind Slabs

Wind Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer of snow (a slab) formed by the wind. Wind typically transports snow from the upwind sides of terrain features and deposits snow on the downwind side. Wind slabs are often smooth and rounded and sometimes sound hollow, and can range from soft to hard. Wind slabs that form over a persistent weak layer (surface hoar, depth hoar, or near-surface facets) may be termed Persistent Slabs or may develop into Persistent Slabs.