Dashboard Regions Weather Stations Radar Alerts Glossary
Contact About
Log In

Register for an account and never miss a forecast again!

Register

Avalanche Forecast

Archived

Feb 13th, 2016–Feb 14th, 2016

Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Alpine
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.
Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.

Regions

Sea To Sky.

I'm expecting the incoming storm for Sunday to be fairly moderate. If you get more than 20 cm new snow with wind, then bump the danger up by one rating.

Confidence

Moderate - Forecast snowfall amounts are uncertain

Weather Forecast

Sunday: 10 cm/mm or so of snow/rain depending on elevation. Freezing level expected to be around 1500 m. Winds westerly 40-60 km/h.  Monday: mostly dry until the late afternoon/evening. Winds light during the day, but picking up to become strong southwesterly in the afternoon. Monday night/Tuesday: A storm is expected to bring around 20 cm/mm of snow/rain with freezing levels around 1700 m and strong southwesterly winds.

Avalanche Summary

Rain-soaked lower elevations are unlikely to see much in the way of avalanche activity, but avalanches will become likely at higher elevations with continued snow and rain. Cornices and storm slabs were released with explosives on Friday up to size 2.0 within the new storm snow in the Whistler area.

Snowpack Summary

Recent warm temperatures left us with moist snow up to around 1800 metres.  Subsequent cooling has left new crusts in many areas. Wind slabs are forming at higher elevations. Cornices are reported to be huge and collapse has become more likely with additional loading and high freezing levels. About 50-90cm below the surface, you'll likely find a rain crust which formed on January 28th. This crust is widespread and exists up to about 2100m. Where it still exists, the mid-January surface hoar layer may be found between 130 and 200 cm below the surface. The combination of warm temperatures and subsequent gradual cooling is making avalanches failing on these deeper layers unlikely.

Problems

Storm Slabs

Storm Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer (a slab) of new snow that breaks within new snow or on the old snow surface. Storm-slabs typically last between a few hours and few days (following snowfall). Storm-slabs that form over a persistent weak layer (surface hoar, depth hoar, or near-surface facets) may be termed Persistent Slabs or may develop into Persistent Slabs.

Cornices

Cornice Fall is the release of an overhanging mass of snow that forms as the wind moves snow over a sharp terrain feature, such as a ridge, and deposits snow on the downwind (leeward) side. Cornices range in size from small wind drifts of soft snow to large overhangs of hard snow that are 30 feet (10 meters) or taller. They can break off the terrain suddenly and pull back onto the ridge top and catch people by surprise even on the flat ground above the slope. Even small cornices can have enough mass to be destructive and deadly. Cornice Fall can entrain loose surface snow or trigger slab avalanches.